Sistema de negociação de proporção áurea

Sistema de negociação de proporção áurea

Sistema de negociação Flipper
Preço de commodities Forex ao vivo
Psicologia de negociação Forex como vencer suas emoções


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Sistema de negociação da proporção áurea Comércio como os profissionais. Aprenda Commodity Futures Trading De Traders Sistemas Profissionais. Pretende começar a negociar commodities? As dez regras de ouro dos operadores vencedores fornecem a base ideal para a sua negociação e explica o que a minoria de sucesso conhece e faz. Já começou a negociar ou definitivamente pretende em breve? O Modus Commodity Trading Course ensina-lhe um método claro e passo-a-passo que garante que você empregue a mesma estratégia que os operadores do sistema vencedor, automaticamente! Procurando por seu próprio sistema de negociação? O curso Modus System Builder ajuda você a gerar ideias para construir seu próprio sistema usando um procedimento fácil de seguir. Taxa de vitórias: a medida de desempenho mais importante. Logo após meu post sobre a maximização de Kelly, recebi vários e-mails de traders que estão desenvolvendo sistemas, mas, compreensivelmente, são, na minha opinião, um pouco confusos sobre qual critério ou critério de desempenho usar ao avaliá-los. Eu entendo porque esses comerciantes estão confusos, ou para ser mais exato, o que ou quem os confundiu e por quê. O critério mais importante a ser usado ao medir o desempenho de uma estratégia de negociação é sua taxa de sucesso, ou seja, uma taxa de ganho. Um ano atrás, no post “O que todo comerciante deve saber sobre a taxa de ganho, lucro e taxa de lucro”, mencionei uma fórmula derivada há 20 anos que apareceu pela primeira vez em um livro publicado em 2000 e Poucos trabalhos em revistas populares. A fórmula descreve a relação entre a taxa de ganho, a taxa de pagamento e o fator de lucro: onde w é o índice de ganhos, expresso como a razão entre o número de negociações vencedoras e o número total de negociações, pf é o fator de lucro calculado como a soma das negociações vencedoras dividida pela soma de negociações perdedoras e r é a razão da média Ganhar o comércio para perder a média de comércio, também conhecido como o rácio de recompensa. Agora, um argumento freqüente é que a taxa de ganho pode ser baixa, como, por exemplo, 30%, mas a razão r pode ser alta o suficiente para que o fator de lucro resultante seja maior que 1, ou seja, uma estratégia lucrativa. A fórmula para o fator lucro pode ser derivada da equação (1): Podemos ver pela equação (2) que se w = 0,4 e r = 1,5, então pf = 1,0. Assim, se r for mantido acima de 1.5, a estratégia será lucrativa. Então o argumento é que r é talvez mais importante que w, e estratégias devem ser desenvolvidas para o máximo de r. Por exemplo, as estratégias de acompanhamento de tendências geralmente são baixas, mas altas. Vou tentar lançar alguma luz sobre essas questões; As estratégias de acompanhamento de tendências precisam ter alto r, mas não há garantia para isso. Não cabe à estratégia decidir qual será o valor de r, pois isso depende das condições do mercado. Se o mercado se mover para os lados, a tendência segue um fator de lucro menor que 1. Esse foi o caso em 2011, com a maioria dos fundos que seguem tendências. A razão r não é algo que possa ser controlado pelo comerciante. Se você confiar em esperanças, poderá medir o desempenho com base na razão r. Mas se você confiar na habilidade, então você medirá o desempenho com base na taxa de vitória e na razão máxima alcançável r. A (s) fonte (s) da confusão. Por que a maioria dos traders e desenvolvedores de sistemas prefere usar métricas como lucro líquido, índice de Sharpe, índice de payoff, fator de lucro, rebaixamento máximo, etc., ao desenvolver sistemas em vez da taxa de ganho direta? A resposta, na minha opinião, é que encontrar estratégias com alta taxa de ganho para o máximo rácio de payoff alcançável é extremamente difícil onde o uso de outras proporções muitas vezes facilita o ajuste de curva, mas as estratégias geralmente têm baixa taxa de ganho, na faixa de 40% a 60 %, mas alta taxa de retorno r, como resultado da otimização. Na verdade, isso é o que a maioria das ferramentas de desenvolvimento de estratégia baseadas em redes neurais, otimização genética e programação normalmente realizam por causa de sua natureza. Essas abordagens algorítmicas foram aplicadas com sucesso em muitos campos, mas são mal aplicadas no caso de desenvolvimento de sistemas de negociação. Uma razão é que eles geram sistemas otimizados TYPE-I e o viés de mineração de dados é muito alto. Ainda mais importante é o fato de que o risco de ruína de uma estratégia de negociação depende principalmente de sua taxa de ganho. Quanto menor a taxa de vitória, maior o risco de ruína. No caso especial de ruína devido a perdedores consecutivos, isso pode ser visto a partir desta simples equação: onde ROR é o risco de ruína, w é a taxa de vitória e R é o inverso do percentual de risco. Pode-se observar que, para percentuais de risco fixo, por exemplo, 2% do capital, o risco de ruína diminui à medida que w aumenta. No entanto, os perdedores consecutivos são um caso especial de ruína e, em geral, a probabilidade é maior. Este caso especial foi usado para mostrar a importância da taxa de ganho. Se você não conseguir desenvolver uma estratégia com uma taxa de ganho suficientemente alta, superior a 70%, em minha opinião, independentemente do valor de uma taxa de pagamento suficientemente alta, o risco de ruína é alto. Estratégias com baixa taxa de vitórias que parecem boas durante o backtesting ou até mesmo apresentam bom desempenho durante os primeiros dois anos de negociações reais podem depender da sorte e, especificamente, da taxa de pagamento permanecer alta. Os fornecedores de software que implementam vários tipos de métricas para auxiliar os operadores no desenvolvimento de sistemas de negociação geralmente o fazem porque oferecem muito mais opções de estratégias de ajuste de curva que parecem ter um alto fator de lucro e índice de pagamento à custa da taxa de ganho. Tais estratégias acarretam alto risco de ruína, porque fazem suposições irrealistas sobre o comportamento futuro dos mercados, como, por exemplo, que o mercado continuará recompensando um comerciante com baixa taxa de ganho por um longo período de tempo. Atualização: Jeff, aqui, codifiquei a Taxa de Ganho em uma função que você pode usar em suas próprias estratégias. Baixe aqui. Sobre o autor Michael Harris. Michael Harris é um especialista em negociação e um desenvolvedor de software avançado de reconhecimento de padrões para o benefício dos negociadores de posição e swing. Michael desenvolveu o software APS Automatic Pattern Search, que recebeu grande aclamação e recentemente o Price Action Lab, um programa que inclui um indicador avançado de análise técnica baseado em padrões de preços, chamado p-Indicator. Ele também fornece serviços de consultoria sobre desenvolvimento de sistemas de negociação e análise de mercado para investidores institucionais e fundos hedge. No passado, Michael também trabalhou em várias empresas financeiras, onde desenvolveu um programa de otimização de carteiras de títulos e sistemas de negociação para commodities e commodities. estoques. Desde 1989, ele tem sido um comerciante ativo. Michael também é um dos autores mais vendidos. Seu primeiro livro “Trading de curto prazo com padrões de preços” foi publicado em 1999. Seus outros dois livros “Técnicas de negociação de ações com padrões de preço” e “Lucratividade e negociação sistemática” foram publicados em 2000 e 2008, respectivamente. Posts Relacionados. Guia para iniciantes de negociação quantitativa. Estudo de caso: Uma técnica simples do Market Internals pode melhorar os resultados da estratégia de negociação? Você está perdendo quando deveria estar ganhando? Aqui está algo que você pode estar perdendo. Obrigado pelo post e isso me fez saber sobre a taxa de vitória. Quais métricas você recomenda que sejam usadas na otimização para escolher o melhor resultado? Eu não acho que a taxa de vitória é a mais apropriada, porque acredito que o draw máximo deve ser considerado enquanto o win não vale. Eu só otimizar as saídas porque otimizar as entradas aumenta consideravelmente o viés de mineração de dados. Veja um artigo anterior Jeff postou & # 8220; Otimização e Curve-Fitting & # 8230; & # 8221; Tendo dito isso eu entendo sua pergunta. É uma boa. Mas considere o fato de que, no caso em que a taxa de ganho é 100%, o rebaixamento do comércio fechado é exatamente 0. Por isso, não implico que se deva tentar encontrar o Santo Graal, mas isso significa que aumentar a taxa de ganho naturalmente diminui o rebaixamento e especialmente o risco de ruína. No entanto, eu entendo que uma alta taxa de ganho nem sempre é possível, como você provavelmente sugere. Nesse caso, você poderia considerar maximizar uma função linear do formulário: onde a, b, c são pesos, w é a taxa de ganho, D é o rebaixamento e X é outro parâmetro, como, por exemplo, o fator de lucro ou lucro líquido, etc. No entanto, isso ainda não tira o fato de que a taxa de vitórias é a medida de desempenho mais importante. Além disso, a otimização sempre aumenta o viés de mineração de dados e o risco de gerar uma amostra comercial que não seja representativa da população. Bem, eu nunca disse que o desenvolvimento do sistema de negociação é fácil .. Eu tenho que discordar que a taxa de ganho é a medida de desempenho mais importante. E, de fato, uma taxa de ganho muito alta pode ser enganosa. Por exemplo, vamos usar dois sistemas. Cada um deles fez cinco negociações. O primeiro sistema teve 4 perdas de $ 100 e 1 vitória de $ 500 dando uma taxa de ganho de 20%. O segundo sistema teve 1 perda de $ 500 e 4 vitórias de $ 100, dando uma taxa de vitória de 80%. Olhando para a taxa de ganho, o segundo sistema é superior, mesmo perdendo dinheiro. Eu preferiria o primeiro sistema. Um sistema pode ter uma taxa de vitória de 100% e ainda ser inferior se o total de seus ganhos for menor que um sistema com uma taxa de ganho menor, mas um lucro maior. Porque estamos todos nisso para ganhar dinheiro, acho que devemos medir a qualidade do sistema (ou seja, lucros vs perdas), em oposição ao fato de que o sistema tem mais negociações vitoriosas versus negociações perdedoras, mesmo difícil do tamanho da perda. negócios é maior que o tamanho dos vencedores. Na minha opinião, a expectativa, o MAR ou o rácio de Sortino seriam medidas muito melhores. & # 8220; O primeiro sistema teve 4 perdas de $ 100 e 1 vitória de $ 500 dando uma taxa de ganho de 20%. O segundo sistema teve 1 perda de $ 500 e 4 vitórias de $ 100, dando uma taxa de vitória de 80%. & # 8221; Você compara um vencedor a um perdedor. O ponto é dado dois sistemas vencedores equivalentes em termos de lucro, você prefere baixa ou alta taxa de vitória? & # 8221; O primeiro sistema teve 4 perdas de $ 100 e 1 vitória de $ 500 dando uma taxa de ganho de 20%. & # 8221; Você espera obter uniformemente 4 derrotas e 1 vitória para cada 5 trades? Você pode obter 8 perdedores seguidos e, em seguida, 2 vencedores e ainda sua taxa de vitórias será de 20%. Enquanto isso, o sistema será quebrado. Este é o ponto e esta é a razão pela qual o risco de cálculo da ruína demanda essa taxa de vitória & gt; 50%, caso contrário, não faz sentido falar em atingir um certo nível de equidade antes de ser arruinado. Muitos fundos que seguem tendências foram arruinados em 2011 & # 8211; 2012 porque foram baseados exatamente na ideia que você descreveu, ou seja, uma baixa taxa de ganho e uma alta taxa de pagamento. Durante o whipsaw eles geraram perdas suficientes para causar substancial redução. Você quer evitar isso. Uma maneira de fazer isso, diz a matemática, é aumentar a taxa de vitórias. É por isso que é a medida de desempenho mais importante. Eu nunca disse que é a única medida importante. Obviamente, o índice de Sharpe ou a taxa de classificação também são importantes. A alta proporção de Sharpe contribui para a significância dos resultados, por exemplo, porque a estatística t é uma função linear dela (t-statistics = relação Sharpe vezes raiz quadrada do número de anos) Alta expectativa é boa, mas essa métrica é uma função linear da taxa de ganho. A maior expectativa (expectativa dividida pela perda média) para o pagamento dado R é obtida para a taxa de ganho de 100%. Basta olhar para a fórmula: Expectativa = w (R + 1) & # 8211; 1 onde R = taxa de pagamento. Assim, se w = 0.5 e R = 2, você espera ganhar $ 0.5 para cada $ 1 arriscado. Isso ainda não é bom. Para w = 0.5 e R = 3, você ganha $ 1 para cada $ 1 arriscado, isto é, marginal. Você deve aumentar a taxa de vitórias porque é difícil obter R & gt; 3 Esta função é máxima quando w é máximo ou R é máximo. Você pode escolher entre os dois, mas pelas razões mencionadas anteriormente eu prefiro o máximo possível w e R & gt; 1 Se a taxa de ganho fosse o parâmetro mais importante, Victor Niederhoffer e Long Term Capital Management ainda seriam relevantes hoje. Em vez disso, o controle de risco e o MAR são mais importantes, conforme evidenciado pela miríade de sistemas baseados em tendência de sucesso. Cisnes negros podem acabar com um sistema de alta taxa de ganho com bastante facilidade se o controle de risco for ruim. Tome uma estratégia de venda de opções, por exemplo. Taxas de ganho muito altas, mas tudo o que é preciso é um desastre para causar uma catástrofe. Eu não gostaria de ter opções curtas de compra do CHF 2 semanas atrás, quando o governo suíço removeu o pino para o euro! "Se a taxa de ganhos fosse o parâmetro mais importante, Victor Niederhoffer e Long Term Capital Management ainda seriam relevantes hoje. & # 8221; Niederhoffer era um vendedor de opções nuas. Nenhuma relação com um comerciante do sistema da maneira como é discutido aqui. O Long Term Capital Management foi um fundo super alavancado e também não relacionado à nossa discussão. "Em vez disso, o controle de risco e o MAR são mais importantes, conforme evidenciado pela miríade de sistemas baseados em tendência de sucesso" # 8221; Eu não sei sobre "miríades" # 8221 ;. O controle de risco e o MAR são importantes em todos os casos. MAR é CAR / DD e um MAR alto não impede uma alta rebaixamento se o CAR for alto. Um sistema com 20% de CAR e 20% de rebaixamento tem o mesmo MAR que um sistema com 60% de CAR e 60% de rebaixamento. Qual você prefere com base apenas no MAR? "Cisnes Negros podem acabar com um sistema de alta taxa de ganho facilmente se o controle de risco for ruim." Os cisnes negros eliminam todos os sistemas se o controle de risco for fraco. Isso tem pouco a ver com a taxa de vitórias. Um levantamento do cisne negro não se importa com o que sua taxa de ganho foi antes de ocorrer. Eu vou contra a multidão e concordo com a sua avaliação do WR%. Um alto percentual de WR também permite o uso de várias ferramentas estatísticas para avaliar a quebra do sistema e pode ser psicologicamente mais fácil de negociar, já que você está ganhando mais do que perdendo. Descobri que as estratégias de reversão significantes de curto prazo podem ser um ótimo lugar para começar a desenvolver um sistema se um% WR alto for o que você procura. Eu concordo com o autor e Ryan. Não consigo pensar em nenhum motivo sólido pelo qual alguém preferiria ganhar menos que perder. A reversão média e também o comércio de giro são bons lugares para negociações com altas taxas de ganho. Os seguidores de tendência são forçados a passar prazos mais longos e a baixa taxa de vitórias é o resultado de seus sistemas falharem quando não há tendência. Nenhum seguidor de tendência quer perder dinheiro mesmo quando não há tendência. A verdade é que os sistemas que seguem a tendência não são robustos no design. Muito bom artigo e o autor ofereceu algumas fórmulas úteis acima. A evidência está ao redor: Sistemas de reversão à média (MR) funcionam # 8211; Alto% WR é otimizado para. Eles geralmente precisam de mais parâmetros e otimização para serem lucrativos no longo prazo; Sistemas de acompanhamento de tendências (TF) funcionam & # 8211; Alto R é otimizado para. Eles geralmente precisam de menos parâmetros e otimização para serem lucrativos a longo prazo. O% WR é irrelevante para o risco de ruína, se você não puder quantificar o risco em primeiro lugar. Ele já foi destacado neste blog antes, pára de prejudicar os sistemas de RM e o melhor desempenho vem de não ter nenhuma parada. Claramente, um compromisso longe do risco infinito tem que ser feito dando uma parada muito solta para que apenas uma pequena fração de negociações saia em uma perda de parada & # 8211; então eles estão sempre correndo com alto risco-aberto. Os sistemas TF, por outro lado, geralmente sempre param nas paradas. Eu diria que o risco de cauda (risco de ruína) é mais quantificável em um sistema TF e, portanto, mais seguro que um sistema de RM. A maior contagem de parâmetros e a otimização necessária em um sistema de RM apenas pioram o problema, a menos que você tenha muito cuidado para evitar a adaptação das curvas. No entanto, os sistemas de MR são muito mais fáceis de negociar e mais rentáveis ​​a curto prazo, apesar de serem mais arriscados. Mesmo que um sistema TF funcione tão bem, quem quer passar por uma redução de vários anos? O autor claramente prefere isso. Nada de errado com isso. Ou você é um trader de reversão à média ou um trader de acompanhamento de tendências. O debate nunca terminará! Eu concordo com alguns dos pontos que você fez, mas discordo da seguinte declaração: "O WR% é irrelevante para o risco de ruína, se você não puder quantificar o risco em primeiro lugar. & # 8221; A incapacidade de quantificar o risco devido ao fato de ser uma função dependente do caminho não implica que o% WR seja irrelevante. Isso apenas implica que o risco não é conhecido, mas o que se sabe é que depende da taxa de ganho. Mesmo que um sistema TF funcione tão bem, quem quer passar por uma redução de vários anos? O autor claramente prefere isto. & # 8221; Você poderia apontar onde no meu artigo eu disse que eu prefiro passar por um drawdown de vários anos? Estou curioso como você concluiu isso. Eu acredito que um trader deve usar os sistemas TF e MR porque eles são complementares. Meu ponto é que, em ambos os casos, WR% deve ser alto e é um equívoco que os sistemas TF podem ter baixa taxa de ganho, muito abaixo de 50%, e ainda ser lucrativos no longo prazo. Como você apontou corretamente, isso depende de otimizar R. Os sistemas de acompanhamento de tendências raramente geram amostras representativas durante o backtesting e até mesmo quando testados em vários mercados e é bastante impossível avaliar seu significado. A maioria das tendências segue a sorte e a razão pela qual a maioria dos fundos usa sistemas TF é porque eles não podem se mover com sistemas MR. Existem exemplos de fundos que tentaram o MR e eles faliram. Na minha opinião, TF com baixa taxa de ganho é uma desculpa para dizer "Eu tenho um sistema" # 8221; quando, na verdade, não há sistema, mas um processo aleatório. O MR é uma história diferente. As amostras podem ser representativas, mas, como você apontou corretamente, deixa de doer. No entanto, estou convencido de que sistemas TF com baixa taxa de ganho nunca podem ser robustos. Obrigado. “Mesmo que um sistema TF funcione tão bem, quem quer passar por uma redução de vários anos? O autor claramente prefere isso ”. Obrigado por me pegar neste artigo & # 8211; Escrevendo mal de minha parte, eu estava tentando dizer que você parece preferir o MR ao invés do TF. Não está claro para mim como você chega à lógica em suas suposições sobre a tendência de ser "sortudo" # 8221; e & # 8220; nunca pode ser robusto & # 8221; & # 8211; Eu acho exatamente o oposto! As tendências existem há séculos nos mercados, e seria seguro assumir que as tendências existirão no futuro, desde que o comportamento pastoral e a psicologia desempenhem um papel nos mercados livres. Isso é robusto. Apesar da natureza contraintuitiva das estratégias de baixo crescimento da tendência de WR, existe um crescente corpo de literatura acadêmica mostrando que realmente funciona. E há muitas amostras representativas de backtesting que voltaram décadas para suportá-lo. Se um comerciante tiver um sistema que negocie em mercados não correlacionados, limita as perdas em períodos barulhentos e segue uma tendência que dura meses ou anos, esse sistema pode ser consistentemente lucrativo apesar do baixo WR%. Um tema polarizador! Obrigado por levantar alguns pontos valiosos. Obrigado James. Sim, o tópico está polarizando. Eu não sou contra o TF. Eu apenas argumento que a taxa de vitórias deve ser maior do que algumas pessoas acham que deveria ser. "Não está claro para mim como você chega à lógica em suas suposições sobre a tendência de ser" sortudo "e" nunca pode ser robusto "& # 8221; Como diz Ed Seykota, "todas as transações do sistema são, em última análise, discricionárias". É melhor avaliar o sistema qualitativamente. Se você remover algumas regras do sistema, terá um desempenho muito ruim? Você pode conectar o sistema para negociar novos mercados sem alterar os parâmetros? As proporções são importantes, mas o sistema tem que fazer sentido para você e se adequar ao seu estilo. & # 8221; Se você remover algumas regras do sistema, o desempenho será muito ruim? & # 8221; Este é um teste importante. "Você pode conectar o sistema para negociar novos mercados sem alterar os parâmetros? & # 8221; Teste extremamente importante. & # 8220; o sistema tem que fazer sentido para você e se adequar ao seu estilo. & # 8221; Isso é importante também. Todos bons pontos. Obrigado. Ed Seykota é uma fonte de inspiração. Alguém sabe qual foi o percentual de vitórias / derrotas em seus sistemas? Tenho a sensação de que sua porcentagem de vitórias foi inferior a 50% e, no entanto, ele foi tremendamente bem sucedido durante um longo período de tempo. Em 1988, quando comecei a desenvolver o sistema de negociação com o System Writer Plus (um ancestral da Tradestation), usei um crossover triplo para a TF e meu parceiro e fiz 120k em alguns meses negociando futuros em moeda. O sistema funcionou bem por mais um ano. Então, parou de funcionar de repente em 1991 e perdemos alguns dos lucros antes de abandoná-lo. Nunca funcionou desde então. Eu digo isso porque o que funcionou no passado raramente funcionava hoje em dia. Possivelmente, sua taxa de vitórias era de 30%. Hoje em dia, meu ponto é que uma baixa taxa de vitórias pode levar à ruína. Discussão interessante de fato! Isso pode ser uma ligeira tangente do tópico original, mas eu pensei que eu colocaria o meu valor 2c de qualquer maneira e o seguinte poderia oferecer um comprometimento das opiniões expressas. Estratégias diferentes, como MR e TF, se complementariam na medida em que provavelmente teriam um bom desempenho sob diferentes condições de mercado e minha opinião é que um conjunto de estratégias complementares é mais fácil de negociar do que cada uma isoladamente. Você pode justificar diferentes taxas de ganho devido à natureza de cada estratégia. Uma maneira de aliviar a dor & # 8217; de negociação pode ser ajustar seu tamanho de posição dependendo de quão bem cada sistema está executando. Isso adiciona complexidade, mas pode aumentar o desempenho total. O Dr. Howard Bandy sugere usar seu dimensionamento de posição Safe-f para essa finalidade e também descreve como você mede o desempenho de um sistema enquanto ele está sendo negociado. "Diferentes estratégias, como MR e TF, se complementariam, pois provavelmente terão um bom desempenho sob diferentes condições de mercado". # 8221; Na verdade, eles se complementam. Acho que mencionei isso em uma das minhas respostas. Bom ponto. Michael, obrigado pelo artigo muito interessante e por todas as suas respostas aos comentaristas. Aprecio você mencionar o risco de otimização excessiva e viés de seleção. Desculpe, não estou entendendo: não é possível otimizar demais da mesma forma com a taxa de vitórias? O tamanho da amostra ainda pode cair abaixo da significância estatística. E / ou o processo de otimização pode gerar uma combinação de parâmetros aleatórios, como você descreveu. Em qualquer um desses casos, pode-se pensar que foi enganado por uma taxa de ganho nominal muito alta, não? Suponho que você esteja defendendo a taxa de ganhos em um contexto de alta significância estatística e replicação comprovada fora da amostra. Além disso, como você apontou, tem que haver um tamanho de efeito mínimo de rede & # 8221; obstáculo que qualquer sistema deve limpar para valer a pena negociar. Quaisquer comentários apreciados. Desde já, obrigado. & # 8220; não é possível otimizar demais com a mesma facilidade através da taxa de ganhos? & # 8221; Absolutamente. É feito o tempo todo. Todas as métricas de desempenho podem ser otimizadas e até mesmo lineares ou funções não-lineares delas (veja comentário anterior). & # 8220; Estou supondo que você deve defender a taxa de ganhos em um contexto de alta significância estatística e comprovada replicação fora da amostra & # 8221; Exatamente, este é o ponto. Não sou contra as outras métricas de desempenho. Eu só digo que a taxa de vitória no mais importante, mesmo no caso de seguir a tendência. É claro que não insisto que o índice de recompensa possa ser qualquer coisa e não prestar atenção a isso. Tudo se resume a isto: se houver uma amostra representativa suficiente, então a taxa de ganho é aproximadamente igual à probabilidade de sucesso da próxima negociação. Eu quero que isso seja alto. Se for baixo, então uma faixa de perdedores pode arruinar meu sistema antes que a próxima tendência chegue. É tão simples de um argumento, mas também é justificado matematicamente. Assim, defendo que os seguidores de tendência com baixas taxas de ganho estão conscientemente apostando e só esperam que uma tendência chegue antes de uma série de perdedores ou de uma série de perdedores, seguida por uma tendência medíocre que não será suficiente para cobrir parte das perdas. Obrigado. & # 8220; Michael, obrigado pelo artigo muito interessante e por todas as suas respostas aos comentaristas. & # 8221; Obrigado, vamos também agradecer ao nosso anfitrião Jeff, que está fazendo um excelente trabalho aqui. Você é bem-vindo. Devo agradecer a todos pelos ótimos comentários. Eu sei que muitas pessoas estão recebendo muito valor por lê-las. Ótimo artigo. Embora a taxa de ganho seja muito importante, uso outros métodos para avaliar o desempenho do sistema. Nada por si só é representativo na minha opinião, tem que ser usado ao lado de outras métricas para chegar a uma conclusão. Eu estava analisando seu produto Price Action Lab e descobri que sua abordagem é muito semelhante à minha. Muito do que eu faço é geração automática de sistemas, pois sinto que é a maneira mais fácil de jogar nos mercados. Como você, eu não fui a abordagem de busca GA / GP / NN, pois introduziu tanta aleatoriedade que aparentemente acolhe o ajuste da curva. Como em qualquer pesquisa automática, os resultados devem ser verificados. Em seu blog você dá muitas informações sobre isso, o que é incrível. Uma abordagem que eu estou supondo fazer é, em vez de separar os versículos dentro da amostra da amostra, vou usar o conjunto de dados inteiro e o meu para os sistemas de negociação. Cada desempenho individual do sistema dessa pesquisa é usado como referência. Eu então faço a busca N vezes de novo; cada vez selecionarei aleatoriamente um intervalo de dados para pesquisar. Cada uma dessas pesquisas N irá aparecer com modelos que podem ou não estar na pesquisa de amostra completa inicial. Registre as instâncias em que a pesquisa de intervalo surgiu com o mesmo sistema de negociação (ou similar). Quanto mais vezes um sistema é repetidamente descoberto novamente, mais robusto o sistema é. Um passo adiante seria fazer um teste fora da amostra. Como você selecionou aleatoriamente um intervalo, há a outra metade dos dados. Teste os modelos com relação a essa outra metade e compare o desempenho com a pesquisa de amostra completa. A ideia é que quanto mais próximo o desempenho melhor. Ame seus pensamentos sobre isso, obrigado. Concordo que é preciso usar outras métricas além da taxa de ganhos. Um que eu uso é o fator lucro. Eu não vou considerar qualquer sistema com PF 1 é preferível, mas dado que DD é pequeno, geralmente & lt; 15%. O procedimento de mineração de dados que você descreveu é interessante desde que a amostragem seja feita sem substituição. Se a substituição ocorrer, o viés de mineração de dados aumenta devido à reutilização de dados. Eventualmente, após cerca de N = 7, o viés de mineração de dados já é muito grande. Se, além disso, o out-of-sample de algum N = k torna-se na amostra para algum N = M, há espionagem de dados envolvida e a significância dos resultados é de cerca de 0. Isto é claro se eu entendi corretamente o que você é fazendo. Um método que eu prefiro envolve validação cruzada primeiro do método de mineração de dados usando dados aleatórios. Se o método for bom, ignore os testes fora de amostra e use os modelos de referência. Realizar backtests de portfólio para aumentar amostras. Aqui está um exemplo: priceactionlab / Blog / 2013/05 / teste enganado-fora-da-amostra / Obrigado. Comentário interessante. O método que propus é essencialmente uma maneira de julgar a consistência do sistema de negociação. Se todas as transações feitas durante todo o período de testes tivessem o mesmo desempenho, elas deveriam acabar sendo descobertas todas as vezes se fossem procuradas em intervalos menores. Observação astuta sobre amostragem sem reposição. O máximo N deve ser igual ao tamanho do intervalo e ao tamanho do OOS. Uma pergunta que fiz foi dada a sua pesquisa de sistema baseada em métricas, você não teria sempre que usar todos os sistemas pesquisados ​​para minimizar o viés de seleção? Existe algum procedimento para filtrar alguns candidatos em potencial? Por exemplo, entendo que você sugeriu backtesting de portfólio. Vamos dizer que você descobriu 500 modelos. Tudo corresponde ao seu desempenho desejado. Você então faz um backtest de portfólio. Metade dessa amostra se torna inferior quando você a testa em um instrumento correlacionado. O que então? Eu sinto que há subjetividade envolvida passada neste ponto. Você pode elaborar mais sobre seu método de validação cruzada em dados aleatórios? Eu não estou seguindo. & # 8220; Digamos que você tenha descoberto 500 modelos. Tudo corresponde ao seu desempenho desejado. Você então faz um backtest de portfólio. Metade dessa amostra se torna inferior quando você a testa em um instrumento correlacionado. O que então? Eu sinto que há subjetividade envolvida neste ponto. & # 8221; Você está correto e esta é a razão. O sistema final inclui todos os 500 sistemas e nenhuma seleção é feita com base em qualquer teste. O backtest do portfólio é aplicado a um sistema que consiste em todos os 500 sistemas e, se falhar, todos os 500 sistemas serão rejeitados. Na realidade, o número de sistemas é muito menor que 500. & # 8220; Você pode detalhar seu método de validação cruzada em dados aleatórios? Eu não estou seguindo. & # 8221; Este é um processo envolvido e talvez o assunto de outro artigo. Se você aplicar um algoritmo de mineração de dados a séries aleatórias e obter muitos sistemas que satisfaçam as métricas, isso poderá significar que o algoritmo está ajustando a curva ao ruído. O número de sistemas deve ser inferior a 10% do que você recebe ao usar os dados reais. Na minha experiência, NN / GP / GA falham neste teste porque se encaixam no ruído. Ótimo artigo. O que você acha sobre os sistemas de trailing stop e chandelier exit stop trading? Você acha que as saídas são mais importantes que as entradas? Alguém que conheço está gerenciando um fundo do Chipre e ele usa seu software Price Action Lab. Percebi que as paradas finais não são uma das opções de saída. Ele me disse que teve sucesso com isso e estou pensando em comprá-lo. Eu não tive nenhum sucesso com NNs no passado e também usei programação genética, mas os resultados sofrem de ajuste de curva. Além disso, o que você acha de maximizar o índice de Sharpe? Agradeço antecipadamente. Paradas de arrasto podem permitir que os lucros sejam executados e que as perdas sejam reduzidas em pouco tempo # 8221; e são especialmente úteis para seguidores de tendência, mas durante o backtesting podem levar a resultados ajustados à curva. Veja este artigo para mais detalhes: priceactionlab / Blog / 2012/06 / trailing-stops-and-curve-in-trading-system-development / Eu também acredito que entradas e saídas são igualmente importantes e minha experiência diz que sistemas com entradas aleatórias são artefatos de ajuste de curva. No entanto, as opiniões podem variar sobre este assunto. O índice de Sharpe é um parâmetro importante, pois está diretamente relacionado à significância estatística dos resultados (veja a fórmula no comentário anterior), mas concentrar-se nele pode fazer com que você rejeite algumas boas ideias que você poderia melhorar posteriormente. Na minha opinião, este parâmetro não deve ser otimizado, mas apenas usado para avaliar os resultados. Caso contrário, a otimização pode ser a circularidade, ou seja, os resultados são bons porque foram forçados a ser bons. Obrigado. Obrigado michael. Pensamentos muito interessantes para mais testes :) Se a taxa de ganhos fosse o fator mais importante a ser maximizado, então todos os CTAs de bilhões de dólares não existiriam. Estratégias bem-sucedidas de acompanhamento de tendências geralmente têm taxas de ganho de 30% a 40% (não 70% ou mais). Como eles são lucrativos? Porque o ganho médio é o dobro da perda média. A expectativa de lucro é o fator mais importante a ser maximizado, que leva em conta as probabilidades de vitória e perda e os lucros associados por negociação. O objetivo da negociação não é estar certo (taxa de ganho) é sobre ser rentável. Obrigado pelo seu comentário. Expectativa de lucro (longo prazo) = w x avgwin + (1-w) x avgloss. Como esta é uma função linear na taxa de ganho w, é máxima quando w é o máximo. O fato de os CTAs terem baixas taxas de ganho não implica que a taxa de vitória não seja o parâmetro mais importante. Isso implica que há uma limitação na maneira como eles negociam. Pergunte a qualquer CTA e ele dirá que ele adoraria ter uma taxa de vitórias maior. Há também considerações adicionais: (1) Tendência seguinte é apenas um estilo de negociação específico. Outros estilos populares exigem altas taxas de ganho porque a taxa de pagamento é baixa. (2) Viés de sobrevivência: quando se considera apenas os CTAs bem-sucedidos, isso ignora muitos dos que fracassaram. "O objetivo da negociação não é estar certo (taxa de ganho) é sobre ser lucrativo." # 8221; As you can see from the equation I wrote, the goal of trading is indeed to be right as often as you can because that increases profitability. If you would like to be just profitable, you could manage that with lower win rates. But a higher win rate will increase profitability and this was the main point here. The fact that some people cannot do it it does not mean that others should not try. Theoretically one can be profitable with a 10% win rate but a long whipsaw period will take its toll on equity. The point that almost everyone here (including the author) is missing is that win rate and payoff ratio are inherently linked. Raising the win rate lowers the payoff… raising the payoff lowers the win rate. This is a mathematical fact. Being able to raise one without lowering the other is the “holy grail” of trading and is not, and never will be, attainable. If the author would like to show his math to prove me wrong then go ahead and try… you can’t do it, it’s IMPOSSIBLE. You can skirt the issue by comparing apples to oranges all you like (as done in the comments above), but unless you can “unlink” win rate from payoff ratio then win rate is no more important a factor than anything else when it comes to risk of ruin (or risk of drawdown). Unless the author can do this then I think the next comment should be a post by him saying “I’m sorry, I’m wrong. Win rate is no more important than win SIZE when it comes to risk of ruin.” And by the way, saying that Victor Neiderhoffer was a naked option seller doesn’t dispute the point of one of the previous commenters… it PROVES IT. Naked option sellers are the ultimate example of why a “high win rate” doesn’t necessarily work over the long run. Their win rate is 100% with a very small payoff ratio on each transaction until that big market move comes along… then suddenly that win rate doesn’t mean a darn thing anymore. Those leaving comments who refer to expectancy as the most important attribute to system design are correct. There is no arguing this fact… and if you continue to do so you show your absolute ignorance of one of the basic precepts of actually understanding trading. Jim, I think you should read the article carefully before commenting. You wrote: “This is a mathematical fact.” Which the author has detailed in his books and papers 15 years ago, as stated in the article: The article states: “If you rely on hopes then you can measure performance based on the ratio r. But if you rely on skill, then you measure performance based on win rate and for maximum achievable ratio r.” This means that you try to achieve maximum win rate for maximum achievable or desirable payoff ration. “and if you continue to do so you show your absolute ignorance of one of the basic precepts of actually understanding trading.” On the contrary, most of those that talk about expectancy are probability fools. Expectancy is nothing more than the average trade. It is not expected value. Only for sufficient samples it become expected value. That means many many trades. This may help you to get up to speed: BTW, expectancy is a linear function of win rate. The higher the win rate, the higher the expectancy for given payoff ratio. Look at the equation: E = avgwin x w – avgloss x (1-w) = (avgwin+avgloss)x w – avgloss. Therefore, E is maximum when w, the win rate, is maximum. Since one cannot control avgloss in general, maximizing w maximizes expectancy in general. I recommend that you get up to speed with these simple equations. They say the whole story and debunk your claims that are based on wishful thinking and not on mathematical facts. Again you are INCORRECT. I recommend that YOU “get up to speed” by using the correct methodology for the situation at hand (trading). Unless you plan on placing only ONE trade in your trading career your 8th grade algebra is useless. In your example the win rate is the determining factor solely because the “simple equation” is bound by the win rate being positive (above 50%) and is therefore INVALID for a proper calculation in any situation that does not have a static binary input/outcome. For anything else (including trading MORE THAN ONCE) it is INVALID as a measure of risk, especially risk of ruin. It works fine for some of the situations but not all. In case you missed it somewhere along the way, that’s not how math is supposed to work. You are providing a disservice here for anyone who is actually considering putting their money at risk in the market by using simple “coin flip” formulas to explain risk of ruin in a situation where they are not necessarily applicable. Novamente & # 8230; a higher win rate DOES NOT GUARANTEE MAXIMIZING EXPECTANCY. I (and many other profitable traders) found the flaws in your examples/arguments many years ago… thankfully before it cost me all of my trading capital. Here’s some parting advice for you (and anyone reading these comments); put down the high school algebra book and actually design some trading systems and you’ll find the answer isn’t as simple as presented by the author of this post. I think what Michael Harris is saying is simple as this: System 1: R:R 3:1, win rate 60% System 2: R:R 3:1, win rate 70% Which system do you prefer? In both cases the R:R is the maximum one can get from price series. But let’s say you can increase R:R to 4:1. System 3: R:R 4:1, win rate 60% System 4: R:R 4:1,win rate 70% Now,which system do you prefer from 3 and 4? Toss a coin with prob of heads 50%. What is the prob of 4 losses in a row? Ans.(0.5)^4. Now toss acoin with prob of heads 70%. The prob of 4 consecutive losers is (0.6)^4. Which coin do you prefer? Obviously, the highest prob of heads the better for given R:R. This is common sense. I thought this article was not really necessary but after I see that some do not understand the importance of a high win rate I think it was a good one. If that is what he is saying then he should say that a higher win rate is PSYCHOLOGICALLY superior, not mathematically superior… end of story. Jim – Emanuel and the author are correct. If you do not understand that wining bias is necessary in trading but you rely on expected high payoffs that may never come then you are probably ruined by this time I post my reply. Posts populares. Atualização de RSI de 2 períodos do Connors para 2013. Este indicador simples faz dinheiro de novo e de novo. O portfólio Ivy. Melhorando a estratégia do intervalo simples, parte 1. Copyright © 2011-2018 pela Capital Evolution LLC. - projetado por prosperar temas | Alimentado por WordPress. Por favor faça login novamente. A página de login será aberta em uma nova janela. Após o login, você pode fechá-lo e retornar a esta página. The Golden Age. CryptoYoda1338. The Dark Night Before Dawn. You see, I get it. We had this amazing time in December when everything went parabolic and the media got all crazy about it. It was a time of celebration with your fellow crypto folks, plans emerged what you are gonna do with the profits of yours. It looked like we will go up infinitly. Then the dip. Since peak we are now down about 70%. Many got triggered by the Media and ended up buying high (take that as a lesson by the way, the Media does not work in your interest, but solely in their own), other’s were fortunate enough to buy earlier, so technically are not holding a losing position. However no matter where you are coming from, we have something that unites us all: We are in the game. And while the world economy gets a first glimpse of what the eventual meltdown will look like, we are still here. Yes, it is a temporary drawdown, but the single most important thing that many seem to oversee today is that we have a foot in the door, while the majority of the world’s population have both no clue and no plan. This is because we as humans are so distracted that we barely see what is really going on. The bubble is here, but it is not Crypto, it is the traditional fiat markets and the debt-based financial system that we currently entertain, which cannot be sustained for much longer. Please feel free to read my articles as I went more elaborately into that topic in the past. The energy is shifting, and humanity is slowly waking up. The thing with truth is, as soon as you understand it, there is no way of going back. You cannot unsee what you have seen. We therefore must assume that the number of awake humans will increase in the future until the critical mass is triggered, which will lead to a long-overdue global revolution. I am not solely talking finance here, I am talking about a spiritual revolution that is coming at us at a rapid pace. While that energy is increasing, every individual has choices. You can either go with the flow, or keep up the ignorance currently entertained by the majority of population. That is a topic that will be covered more in the coming months as this becomes more evidence in the real world. For now I wanna talk about the dip, and put out some thoughts about it from my very subjective perspective. Only take what you need, leave the rest. You see, money is just a fraction of the experience we call life, and it is not the most important one either. I previously made some general statements about having wealth does not make you a happy and fulfilled person, and it is true. I feel I can comfortably talk about that, because I have experienced both. Not too many years ago I walked through the grocery store with a calculator and could only afford food for my cat, but not myself. I know pretty well what poverty feels like, but on the bright side of things it made me go all-in in Crypto. It was simply my rescue boat. Now due to me having experienced both extremes, I can tell that money is only a problem until you have more than you need to cover your expenses. Everything above is a bonus, but it will not significantly alter your life experience. It is nice to be free of debts and monetary problems, but life is about so much more than that. And it is only when you have more than enough when you will realize that. We need corrections for a healthy trend, and I consider this statement absolutely true. Without any pullbacks, this crypto thing would be unstable and uncertain. Only the consolidations will bring the support that we need for a stable trend up, and you will be grateful for these dips in the future. However I feel the emotional and mental struggles in realizing that a dip is actually a positive thing. After all, we are losing money in this period. But it is only temporary. We are in such a fantastic and exciting time of humanity, and we have the chance to witness and even participate in the biggest transfer of wealth that ever happened on this planet. It is still in early development, but inevitable, at least in my perception of things. I am pretty confident in five years from here you will not even recall this particular dip. That is the peculiar things with dips, it is only intense when you are right in it, but quickly forgotten after. Thus the most important thing is not that the dip is here, but that you learn something from it. It may be an adjustment of your strategy, or gaining emotional strength that you have gained by holding through the storm. I have experienced many 90% dips, and I am still holding around. This is either because I am utterly retarded, or because I understand that the dips is not what matters. What really matters is what price you bought at, and how much you are willing to take until you give up. I get it, this is a dark night for many, especially those who entered in the last months hoping for getting rich quick. This is usually not how this is going. In order to reap the benefits of your actions, you need to invest. I am not solely talking about financial investment, but constant investment of time, energy and willpower to make this happen, so you realize the reward is just in comparison the investment you made. The willpower needed to endure the dark nights will give you the power to handle the wealth later on. It is only then when you feel you have earned it, that you will attract that which you sought. Getting rich quickly cannot work in the same manner as putting extensive energy into something only to see it bloom in some years from here. Getting rich quickly will likely make you lose your wealth quickly as well. The pain and negative emotions on the path of reaching financial independence is what makes it worth it, and will enable you to keep the actual wealth you have earned in the future. It makes you mentally and emotionally strong, and this is not a bad thing. The emotions that you observe in dips like that is necessary for your future growth. Welcome it. Embrace it. Observing and conquering your emotions will make you a stronger being one step at a time. No matter if you are holding a massive losing position, or just suffer from the emotional difficulties of holding in a dip: You are going to be alright, you get me? Everything is temporary, so is this. The only important thing to learn here is that you are able to survive this, both financially and emotionally. You are way stronger than you think. I know that because I have experienced so many dark nights in my life that I stopped counting. Eventually everything is always going to be alright, know that and operate from the knowledge that all things change. The only constant in this equation is you. You are the ship in the ocean of life, and yourself is the only thing you can steer. You are the captain of your ship. You cannot control how the weather will be, or how rough the sea will treat you. The only thing you are capable of controlling is that ship of yours that only you know how to steer. When the winds are tough and the sky is dark, you can only take in your sail and patiently wait for the storm to be over. However if you stubbornly set your sails, the storm will take you down without mercy. Life is as such. When rough times are here, it is too late to change it. The only thing you can ensure is that you have the strength and willpower to wait until the weather clears up, and the trust and knowing that there will be brighter days eventually. Let’s get to some practical things you can do while the dip lasts: o If you trusted your money with some fundamentally strong projects, have faith. o Observe your emotions, feel how they want to trigger you to make bad decisions at the worst possible time. Just observe, but don’t act on it, so you will learn that emotions can be controlled. Otherwise the market will teach you sooner or later. o Have a look at the BTC chart of the past. Analyze, see differences and similarities, understand how this market is moving. o It may be a good time to reconsider your portfolio, or your portfolio-strategy. The flight to quality will inevitably come. o If you cannot handle the emotions but want to go through with your strategy, turn off your computer. It is as simple as that and probably the most valuable recommendation I can give. Countless times I have closed my laptop because I knew it would trigger negative emotions looking at my portfolio, which in turn might trigger bad, unconscious decisions. Go out for a walk in nature. Read a book. Have some fun. o Use the time at your disposal to research. Research projects, coins, fundamentals, the state of the world. Learn something while you wait for the market to turn. o Meditate. It will calm your mind and decreases the power of emotions on your decisions. I consider Meditation to be the most valuable investment in life. And remember, everything will be alright. In some weeks from here you will be looking back and barely remember the pain you went through. But what you have gained will stick with you for the rest of your life. All the best and much strength, I know you can do it. Have faith, The Truth about Ripple. Gents, Ladies, Newcomers & Oldskoolers.. For a long time I kept calm and observed what is going on in the markets while letting the process naturally unfold. Due to recent events however we are now at a point in time where it is more important than ever to speak up. When ignorance gets to a level that is worrysome, it is time to act. The truth is the truth and it is our individual and collective responsibility to get the word out if necessary. I therefore will tell my subjective truth about the whole Ripple thing in this post. This is for everyone invested in XRP as well as everyone who is torn between being silent or speaking up. You see, i get it. Most of you are making a shitload of money right now riding Ripple. It is wonderful to have money. But did you ever wonder about at what expense you are making this profit? Everything in life is in balance, you gotta give in order to receive. There are always two sides of a coin. If you are making a profit on XRP right now, you are paying a price. It is just that most of you are yet unaware what price that is. In the beginning of the year I advertised Ripple from a technical charting perspective as very profitable. However during the year I researched a lot, and more importantly, the list of red flags added up and grew steadily so that I eventually reversed my earlier position in this regard. In this article, I wanna walk you through my list of red flags. I expect not that you agree with me (bias is strong anyway these days), but i expect you to at least be open-minded and re-revaluate the critical components of the Ripple system that will be outlined below. If you disagree after reading the article, im fine with that. You can do with that information what you must. My responsibility is to speak up when misinformation rises parabolically, and it is getting time.. When Bitcoin spawned into this world it attracted all kinds of individuals. The majority of them were unsatisfied with the status quo of the economic system currently entertaining our everyday lives, and were looking for new, more efficient solutions that actually gives the power back to the people by eliminating third party interventions like banks. Early innovaters of Bitcoin were here for the global revolution that blockchain could potentially bring to the world and its citizens . It was all about immutability, public ledgers, anonymity, bypassing third parties and banks, in order to re-distribute the global wealth and regain financial freedom and independence for all of humanity. If everyone becomes his or her own bank without any intermediary parties having control/power over your monetary assets, this is real freedom, at least in a monetary sense. This however is in stark contrast to the traditional system we currently entertain, and have already entertained for decades, while things get worse and worse. I am talking about the system the world is based upon; the biggest scam in human history: Debt-based Fiat currency . Since Nixon took the Dollar off the gold standard, it is worth noting that the value of the Dollar and other Fiat currency is the exact value of the paper it is printed on. It is not backed by anything, but trust that it actually has any value whatsoever, which works for as long as everybody mutually agrees on that . It can be printed at will, and the decision to do so will be made behind closed doors. In the meanwhile, we have inflation which reduces the value of the nonetheless worthless fiat over time. The money you have at your bank today is getting more worthless every single day. “But I receive positive interest on my bank account!” some say. Sure you do, if you get a 1% interest on your savings, but lose 3% due to inflation, who is the winner now? Hint: It is not you. The ignorance of how our economic system works (on which by the way our whole global economy is based upon) to me is beyond rational understanding. If you do not understand how our economic root model works, how can you build your life on top of that? Not understanding this underlying model is like constructing a huge house on ground which you have not previously investigated, just to eventually figure out that you have built it on toxic quicksand. It will be too late by then. It is YOUR responsibility to understand the economic system the world entertains today. This is mostly targeted at Millenials. I know most baby boomers and elders have accepted the status quo as reality, which is not yet fully the case in younger generations. Especially when it comes to the very first generation that grew up with the Internet, which means (at least theoretically) having access to almost all information accumulated by human kind. No, we did not learn much about the current system in school, we are not supposed to understand it properly in the first place. If everybody would suddenly realize the reality of the bogus our system is running upon, there would be blood on the streets, two minutes from here. But of course that is not in the interest of those controlling that system. If you wanna continue to sleep, don’t read further, just go ahead. I will ebalorate about the state of the world in future post, for now I will focus on XRP and the red flags it brings with it. XRP is not a cryptocurrency. “Released in 2012, Ripple is a real-time gross settlement system, currency exchange and remittance network by Ripple Labs. It is also called the Ripple Transaction Protocol and is built upon a distributed open source Internet protocol, consensus ledger and uses the native “cryptocurrency” XRP. Ripple’s focus is to create a system than enables “secure, instantly and nearly free global financial transactions of any size with no chargebacks”. At its core, Ripple is based around a shared, public ledger which uses a consensus process that allows for payments, exchanges and remittance in a distributed process.” Por enquanto, tudo bem. But this is not the end of the story. Actually XRP is an electronic token, created and backed by a single company: Ripple Labs Inc. – a global money transaction business. It should be noted that there is a distinct difference between digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ripple’s XRP tokens. While Bitcoin is an actual cryptocurrency and store of value, XRP tokens are essentially backed by traditional (Fiat) currencies, as if they’re dollars or yet or another form. XRP is not intended to be money in the first place, it is a medium of exchange to transact value. It can be seen as a giftcard or token that can be sent in seconds & redeemed for fiat money. When Ripple Labs Inc started XRP in 2012 they “created” 100 billion tokens out of thin air. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, who were also the founders of Ripple Labs. The creators gave the remaining 80% of the total to Ripple Labs which intended to redistribute remaining tokens to ecosystem supporters like banks. However Ripple Labs today owns the vast majority of XRP (over 60% of the supply). It is their sole decision to cash in on the value or completely devaluate the market by flooding it with cheap XRP. Another important issue to think about: It is easy to manipulate the market if one group controls 60% of the supply. It opens the gate for widespread manipulation. We do not know what those individuals do with this high valuation, but regardless, you are at the whim of a powerful 3rd party with uncertain goals. If 100% premine aka “creation out of thin air” with 60% of the total supply being in possession of the creators is not enough for you to shake, lets go on… Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and 90% of all cryptocurrency blockchains, Ripple is a relatively closed blockchain. Through some effort, users can go download a wallet and transfer Ripple to it, but you have to create trust lines with other organizations in order to get access. In this way, you can’t just send money to whomever you want, they have to accept you as trustworthy before allowing transactions. In other words, they control the servers that allow transactions. Isn’t that what centralization is all about? When Bitcoin was originally created, it was designed to be a store of value. When you created a transaction, you were sending a store of value to another account (for payment for goods and services). Miners created nodes on the network to process transactions and were compensated with this cryptocurrency, either through fees or mining rewards. This is not how Ripple works. Ripple has no mining or miners whatsoever. Instead, transactions are powered through a “centralized” blockchain to make it more reliable and fast. XRP was mined all at once by the parent company, with a majority of the cryptocurrency held by them. This is basically the pure definition of centralization: “The concentration of control of an activity or organization under a single authority” “The centralization of all financial power in the hands of its leaders” In contrast, a defining feature of a cryptocurrency , and arguably its most endearing allure, is its organic nature; it is not issued by any central authority , rendering it theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation . More than anything, Ripple resembles a fintech platform which has simply combined the best elements of fiat money and blockchain cryptocurrency. It therefore should be considered Digital Fiat, not a cryptocurrency. O preço que você paga. As previously stated, you are likely paying a price for the profits you make through XRP. You invest your hard-earned Fiat or BTC into a token for which Ripple Labs never paid a dime to create. It cost them literally nothing to create the tokens people buy today at $4 per piece. 100% of the tokens were created out of thin air, while the majority of the supply is still in control of Ripple itself. The network is privatized, meaning that not everybody can participate in the systems, as trustworthy nodes are “selected”, which is the basic definition of centralization. If we think that further, in actuality you are buying worthless air, and make the creators incredible rich at the same time, while hoping someone will pay you more for the air of yours than you paid for in the first place. I’m sure Chris Larsen is pretty happy about your Ripple enthusiasm… Don’t fall for the hype. Do not focus on making money solely, there is more at the stake than just monetary gains. And it saddens me deeply to see that most have no clue about what is going on in the backgrounds. In my subjective analysis and understanding, Ripple is a trap, and if you currently hold XRP, you are right in it. Hereby our money is our vote. By choosing to invest in certain blockchain projects, we also financially support those ideas that will eventually manifest and shape the New World. If you want to support an improved version of Fiat Scam, you can do so, but i ask you to do it at least consciously so that you can understand the impact of your decision, even if it is 50 years from here. We all plant the seed for our future right here right now, individually and collectively. In due time, the seed will either flower or degenerate. It is up to us to decide. I want you to understand that this article is not driven by self-interest. I do not hold any XRP, nor do I desire to get a position. Nothing in this article is meant offensive in any way. I do not claim to be 100% right about everything when it comes to Ripple, but I gathered have enough indications and red flags to not be invested nor recommend it. This article is purely driven out of the feeling of being responsible for what happens to and around us. All I am here for is to observe and make sure the transition into the New Age is going smoothly. It is also the logical consequence of the ignorance currently entertained in the market, where the many participants (especially new market entrants) are incredibly blinded by greed while not question fundamentals whatsoever. Eventually I have nothing to gain by publishing this article, rather the opposite. Despite the obvious risks, I open myself to the shitstorm of XRP believers which is no fun to have. But that is the price I pay, and I do it consciously, because I know the reward will be the truth told, which has more value than any monetary gains in the first place. My hope is my subjective perception eventually leads others to question and investigate for themselves and shape this world to a better place by sharing their subjective insights and truths with everyone willing to listen. This is not about being “right”. This is about awareness and conscious decision-making. Another thought: If XRP is used as a medium of exchange and is backed by fiat currency, while Crypto is the hedge against the global financial meltdown of fiat currency, isnt that an obvious conflict in there? If the economy melts down, which is a matter of time, Fiat becomes worthless anyway. What use do we have for a token that is used as a medium of exchange between Fiat currencies when Fiat currencies will eventually evaporate? Lets spin that further: IF Fiat currencies collapse, wouldn’t the trust in banks go completely extinct? Would there not be a giant outrage against these banks that manifested this situation by entertaining a economic model that creates more debt than money to ever repay it, while keeping it all hidden from the public? Would this outrage not negatively affect a system like Ripple which aims to make banks even more efficient in distracting wealth from the world’s population? While the whole world sinks in debt which cannot be repaid, while your income steadily decreases and your money gets more and more worthless every day as the FEDs printing machine is running hot, you give them the only thing that really matters when it comes to financial freedom in the future: Your precious Bitcoin. In my subjective opinion, by supporting XRP we work towards the opposite of what we are trying to achieve in a decentralized world, to give the power back to the people to take it away from the bankers, the 1% of the 1%ers, who control this world. If you only take one thing from this article, take this: Lets wrap it up and come up with a conclusion: XRP is 100% premined, Ripple holds 60% of the supply, controls which nodes are selected as “trustworthy” to confirm transactions, while they have paid nothing to create those tokens that people are so willingly buying at $4+ per piece and thereby make the creators insanely rich. Let us call it what it really is, digital fiat , the renewed version of the debt-based traditional fiat system, leveraged by latest technology – which eventually has nothing to do with cryptocurrency whatsoever. And to reflect on it using Mr. Brandt’s words… When it comes to Ripple, just ask yourself… Who is the few? And who is the many? May the Truth be with you, Elaborated: Trailing Profits & Trading Objectives. When it comes to trading, every trader has the goal to generate profits, may it be intra-day or on a longer timescale. He tries to generate profits by using technical analysis, finding patterns, or looking for potential breakouts on volume in order to get an edge. However there are multiple ways and styles to achieve that outcome. For that its necessary to know WHAT you are trading, HOW you want to trade it, and what the rules are for entering and exiting positions. This is the main pitfall for every trader, especially those who just began their trading venture. The main reason for traders failing initially is not having a system, nor a strategy, nor defined rules. This way people enter positions, but without any objective. Hence it is very difficult to make this a profit trade, because how do you know when to exit, if you have not pre-defined the goal of this trade? Thus finding out the proper strategy that is in alignment with your personality and emotional capability is of paramount importance if you want to sustain your profitability in the long run. This article will serve as a pre-book lesson, as it is more important to release these information right now, not in days or weeks. This article is about Strategy, Trailing Stops, initial Stop Losses and maximizing coin amounts by selling tops and rebuying lower with a set, pre-defined system. Numerous strategies will be introduced, important is just that you pick the one that naturally aligns with your style and personality. Before putting on ANY trade, you must know your objective beforehand, otherwise you will have difficulties in exiting your position even if you are in high profits. The first decision in this – always – é isto; do you enter this trade for a short period of time (intraday), or on a longer timeframe (overnight hold)? In order to decide on a suitable Stop- and Trailing system you must know that time horizon of your trade beforehand. So lets get started, various strategic options are available to choose from: There so many different styles out there. Trading is obsessive, which means the longer you trade the more you are in “your game”, and only focused on specific movements and patterns to make a profit. However every trader uses a unique trading strategy, and it becomes even more individual the longer the trader refines that strategy. Therefore on a long enough time frame, there is not two traders using the exact same method to generate profits. Adaption and improvement is a natural part of the trading cycle, therefore you certainly use a slighlty different method like you did 6 months ago. Markets are always changing, so are traders. Então, quais são as opções? I know traders who enter the market for very tiny movements, but they enter with such a big position size that it is enough to generate enough income for a month of living. This is generally called scalping, which means you enter with a considerable position size, only for a tiny movement of 0.5% or so. You do not care about where the market is going in the longer run, all you want to extract is this little movement that happens when bears close their positions and drive the price higher, when an entry is triggered. In the picture above, this is Trading the Breakout . However there are traders that are more specialized in profiting from the whole leg resulting from a triggered entry. They try to stay in the market for several bars until the momentum declines and the trend shows some weakness. They ONLY stay in the markets for the leg, which means the whole up movement before we see any correction. At the point where the correction starts they close their position and wait for another entry, but their profits are safe. This is called Trading the Leg . Traders with a longer time frame outlook do not bother about smaller movements, they are in for the long haul and have the patience and understanding of the market to hold a position for a very long timeframe without being tempted to sell before their target is reached (which again varies according to very different personalities out there). The are willing and able to survive all dips and flashcrashes to sell their huge bag at the top of the entire trend after it showed significant signs of weakness. Thats the strategy I apply for myself, and suggest to do so generally in order to take away the highest profit possible when time is due and the rally comes to and end. This is called Trading the Trend . Every of the three trading methods above will come with a set of rules that can be followed in order to get first profitable experiences under a certain “safe” pre-defined guideline. However for the reason of practicability I will focus on the latter two methods as they are most applicable to crypto trading, namely trading the Leg & the Trend. Trading the Leg is all about finding potential trigger points that will result in major moves on high volume to the upside. Finding such an entry is comparably easy with some experiences in the markets, exiting those positions is a little more difficult, as recognizing tops is a whole science in itself, and way more difficult to master than entries alone. In order to be profitable in this market, there are several requirements: The trader must be able to differentiate the leg (with-trend) from the consolidation (anti-trend), and only take entries that are in trend-direction. Reason for that is that movements in overall trend direction happen way quicker than the consolidation, and tend to be more profitable, less risky. The trader must be able to recognize points where much volume (thus movement) will enter the market, preferable at points where bears placed their stop-losses. The trader must be able to recognize the top in order to sell his position at the very top, or near it. If those three requirements are fulfilled, it is likely the trader will be profitable enough to at least generate a lot of experiences in the context of this strategy, from which point they are able to refine, adjust and improve their system with every additional trade. We focused a lot on entries in the past, as this is the gateway to make profits in the first place. I do understand the necessity for exits. However as stated earlier, there are so many strategies in trading, that it is almost impossible to give a “general exit rule”. Entries in general are way more easier than exits, but finding better exits is a natural consequence of continous trading, especially if you continue to use the same method every time you enter a trade. In the context of this lesson and the method of Trading the Leg , i will provide a stop system which equalizes the need to pick the exact top, but generates profit nonetheless. There are two different stop-methods you can apply in order to trade the leg profitable. One is more simple, the other one more complex. Both have their strength and weaknesses, so best would be to play around with both until you figure out which of them is more suitable to your trading style. Então & # 8230; lets start with the simple one: Lets assume we have placed a buy stop order at the trigger in the example picture below: Our order has been successfully filled with the bar pushing through the trigger and closing above. Now where do we put our stoploss (SL from here)? First we need an initial SL in order to protect ourselves in case the trade goes very wrong. This is not so important when Trading the Trend, but it is crucial in Trading the Leg. So once we successfully opened a position, the SL will be placed at last low, like that: As long as the trend is intact, our SL should not be triggered. This is purely for protection purposes. It is up to you to decide if you use a HARD SL by putting a sell order in the market that activates when your SL has been hit, or if you use a rather visual SL, in which you see your actual SL triggered, but try to close your position higher than that, as often another pullback occurs. Anyway, lets go on, our trade is active and the initial SL is placed. We are good to go. So what is next? Our SL is very far away from our entry, so we have a relatively high risk yet. As soon as the entry bar that triggered closes, we will move our SL to the low of that bar, like that: Our risk now is smaller, but we are not yet in profits. However the next candle is a strong breakout candle: We therefore thighten our SL to the low of the bar once it is closed. Right now we dont have any risk at all, worst case scenario would be to be stopped out at break-even, which is a profit trade . Why is it a profit trade if we didn’t make any? Because we observed the pattern and learned something, that will in turn lead to less mistakes and more profits in the future. While more bars appear in the chart, we always take our SL and put it on the low of the last bar once it has closed. For the sake of simplicity, I put all SL levels into the next chart: By using this method, we have been stopped out at a decent profit by just placing a SL at the low of each closed bar. This is the simple principle. However it is obvious that we did not profit from the whole leg, but got stopped out in a bear trap which resulted in another major leg up. We therefore missed out on potential profits, which is undesired. When we enter a trade we want to extract the maximum amount of profit there is. If that is not the case we need to refine our strategy in a way that enables us to do so, which is the responsibility of every traders himself. There is however another SL method focused on Trading the Leg , that is a little more complex. For that let me first introduce the Outside and Inside bar methodology that is needed for this system: So the outside bar engulfes the inside bar, which is a trading range in a lower timeframe. Trading ranges tend to be fluctuating a lot. Understanding that is crucial in order to sense why this system is a little more complex versus the simple system. So what exactly is different? Basically the SL rule stays the same, we enter the trade at the trigger, set an initial SL and place our new SL at the low of every new closed bar. However there is an exception of the rule. In case one bar closes within the range of the previous bar (thus becoming an inside bar), we pull back our SL to the low of the bar prior to the outside bar. Reason for that is that an inside bar is basically a trading range in a lower time frame, and trading ranges tend to fluctuate and test both extremes, usually called noise. Preferably, you do not want to get trapped out due to noise when trading the leg up. Let me visualize: I will fast forward and put in the correct SL with every new bar so you can get a better idea of how that works in practice: This way we have not only avoided being stopped out in the bear trap like in with using the simple method, but still hold this trade with massive profits. It is a bit more complicated to understand, but definitely a more efficient SL method. However keep in mind that we need to put our SL back to a previous level (therefore risking to get less profits). In case the trade goes badly we may lose all of our previous profits this way. On the other hand however, if the trend continues to go on longer than expected our likeihood of increasing our profits is higher than with the basic method. As i said earlier, each of these methods have their own strength and weaknesses, and it is important you choose the one that is suitable to your trading style and personality. Try both, see which one works better for you. If you get stopped out of your trade in profit, wait for another promising entry, rinse, repeat. Suggested time frame for Trading the Leg is 15min upwards to daily. You can trade the legs in 5min charts when there is so much volume that you see nice shaped bars and little gaps. Using a SL method for trading the trend is somewhat different to the one above. The main objective is not to get stopped out even by major corrections within that trend, but to ride it to the very peak. Let me find a better example of a trend and explain it within the visualization: As wordpress is kind of complicated when it comes to pictures, please go here to see the. HIGH-RESOLUTION PICTURE so you can actually read whats been written in there. please mind that you can use the trend SL method also in lower timeframes like 5min or 15min. Trend does not solely mean something huge in daily or weekly charts, there is trends everywhere. At last, lets take one chart and put in all different SL methods i explained in this article so we can clearly differentiate between them: All stop methods have generated profit, only the Trend Swing method is still active. The chart sure is a bit messy, but a direct comparison is needed to understand the strength and weaknesses of each system. For the simple method, we have been stopped out quite early, while the complex method managed to get some higher returns out of this trade. the swing trade is still active (was later stopped out around $ 3325 using this SL method – not seen in this chart). I do suggest to spend some time with those methods in order to find a system that suits your style, and experiment with it until you are ready to refine it based on your own experiences with that method. Expontential Moving Averages. As we are already in the flow, let me find some words why I use EMAs as only indicator. Generally EMAs are just a visualization of the last x bars average price movement. So for example, an EMA 20 shows the average price movement of the last 20 bars, visualized as a line. Especially to traders relying on technical analysis, moving averages are useful in assessing the strength and stability of trends. You can use any EMA value, but i found EMA 20, 50, 100 & 200 the most useful ones, especially in high time frames like H1, H4, Daily, Weekly. Due to the fact that EMAs are simple to use and highly respected in trading I like to use them as additional source of information if I am not absolutely sure about the steadiness of the trend and if there is uncertainty of how the charts continue to move. As usual, lets have a look to get a better picture of how it works: EMA always work as either support or resistance, depending on how price action develops around these lines. If prices are below the EMAs, its resistance, if prices are above, EMAs act as support. Generally the zone between EMA 100 and 200 is buy zone. That means IF EMA 100 is above EMA 200. It is the same in a bear trend when EMA 100 is below 200, then the zone between those EMAs is a strong sell zone. If prices crash after a huge rally, it is rather likely they will retest either EMA 100 or 200, or previous highs – or a combination of all of them. Hope that serves as a basic understanding of EMAs. It is certainly no genius science, it does not even matter what value you use. It solely is important that you use the same values everytime you trade, so you can observe and learn how prices react to these respective EMAs. Play around, experiment with it, both with SL methods suggested above, and various indicators. May that be helpful for now, however this is just a basic understanding of how to apply methods to your trading style in order to refine them with your own experiences later on. So more following in the future, would be happy to get a feedback so I can improve things in the coming articles. Protected: Critical Changes & The Circle of 100. Update on Markets. Good Morning, Ladies, Gentlemen. Excited for a new week! Since Bitcoin reached new All Time Highs after taking out recent high around $ 3000, we have not seen significant price action yet. We do need the confirmation trigger to get the bull run started fully on rising volume. Might take a while until we get to the trigger though, but be sure Fiat money is on the way into the markets, just needs some days to manifest. Similar to the spike in BTC, with it there is a new spike in interest concering cryptocurrencies, which is nice. Today I wanna share an interesting chart of Coinmarketcap: O que este gráfico nos diz? Well, first of all, Total Market Capitalization is near its All Time High, which means if it gets triggered we see massive inflow of money into general crypto MKTcaps which will be sufficient to trigger the confirmation of BTCs earlier breakout. To be clear, the FOMO is developing, however not yet manifested. We will be looking at far higher prices next week, and especially in 1 month from now. When it comes to ALTS, it becomes obvious that they lag a bit behind, which means that ALTS generally are in an upwsing but struggle a bit because of BTCs recent strong upmove. Which fits totally with what happened in 2013. BTC started the kickoff, ALTS lagged behind for some days, only to follow the same way a few days behind, rising exponentially to a degree in which ALTS tend to pump harder than BTC, which in turn means the ratio ALTS/BTC kicks up in due time. However it may need some more time to manifest in the markets. When BTC MKTCAP triggers its ATH, we likely see BTC being dominant until the point when ALTS MKTCAP triggers its ATH too. So generally speaking, a rising / spiking $BTC price is to be seen positively when you are positioned in ALTS, given you have the time and patience to survive the intial dip again. I generally do not advise to sell ALTS because being in there is clearly a winning move. If you want to take the risk and sell some ALTS when BTC spikes, you can obviously do it, just make sure you hit the buy button very quickly when things are about to turn upside again. I do believe that the next two years will be the most magnificent we ever witness when it comes to excitement in the markets. imho, critical mass is about to trigger which means the crypto rally will then be superior to traditional and metal markets. Huge money inflow is expected from all kinds of industries which eventually leads to a global FOMO on indvidiual and business basis. If you have not yet a sufficient longterm strategy or portfolio, i *strongly* advice to do qualitative research about various coins and projects BEFORE $BTC triggers a new ATH. Time is running out, and if you are not well-positioned at this time, you will have problems in coping with the turbulences of coming weeks, especially if you are very shortterm oriented. There will be a time when it is very recommended to switch from Shortterm to Longterm Strategy, and the point is near. Make sure you are absolutely satisfied with your holdings, and the coins you have picked. Money is not only energy, but also a vote. In this specific situation, it is a vote towards which coins you are going to trust in providing you a financial independent future. Look at your coins, are these coins that you trust so much that you will put all your investment into? If you are not allowed to touch your portfolio for two years, would you still be happy about your holdings or would you change it? Some further brainstorming and research is recommended at this stage. Besides, I decided i will post more articles on my Blog again, its been a long time and in actuality one of my most favorite things to do. So stay tuned, trade safe & have a nice trading day, Protected: Post-Fork Situation. Protected: 1st of August; Bitcoin Cash & Blocksize Solution. Navegação de postagens. 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Golden ratio trading system

Dennis did so to set up an old argument with fellow trader Bill Eckhardt on whether trading could be taught or not (not unlike the story in classic movie Trading Places). The experience was succesful in proving Dennis right (trading could be taught), with his turtle traders making him $100 million. Why turtles? The Turtles were nicknamed as such because of an analogy with how Richard Dennis expected to “grow” traders in the same way Singapore farms grow turtles . Dennis taught his students a mechanical Trend Following system and let them trade with his own capital. After being kept secret for more than a decade, the rules were revealed and floated on the internet for a while. Two enjoyable books have now been published on the topic (Complete Turtle Trader – featuring the actual turtle rules and The Way of the Turtle written by Curtis Faith, a former Turtle) if you are interested in learning more about it. The turtle system. The Turtle system did not contain “magical” components. It was basically a combination of 2 different breakout systems with specific rules for money management, including position sizing, pyramiding, correlation limits and cutting down position size during drawdowns (a quick “Turtle trading rules” google search should yield some results for the exact rules). System kaput? Now that the rules have been made public, it is possible to backtest them and see how they would have performed on the recent markets. Such test result can be found on the Trading Blox forum. clique para ampliar It basically shows that the CAGR drops from 216% (!!) from 1970 to 1986 (when Dennis and Eckhardt were developing the system, and also when the students traded the system with real money) to barely double digits (10.5%) in the last 23 years (1986 to 2009), with a completely flat period from 1996 to 2009 . As a side note check the crazy amount that compounding generates at that rate of 216%! One could argue that Dennis & co were just lucky to trade the system during what appears to be its golden period. System overheating warning. During the Turtle experiment, Dennis came to the realisation that their position sizing rules were such that: you have been trading as much as twice as big as we thought. Here is a snapshot of the memo that Dennis sent to all traders asking them to cut their position size in half. We must be living right. Another way of saying “We have been very lucky”?… O que isto significa? Well, some say that the Turtle performance was a fluke – that the Turtles were actually the proverbial monkeys writing Hamlet (see the Infinite Monkey Theorem). I guess these people would be in the EMH camp (Efficient Market Hypothesis). Some say that Trend Following is dying/dead and the Turtle system under-performance is an illustration of that. Problem is: these people seem to celebrate the demise of “simpleton” Trend Following strategy every so often (during major drawdown peiods), only for Trend Following to come back roaring again (think 2008). Some might also say that market conditions are changing, and systems need to adapt to these changing conditions. Although, some also say that this argument is specious, citing Bill Dunn as an example of a CTA claiming to use the same rules as when he started in the 70’s. Reconciling it all. Instead of concluding this post quickly here – on what it does or does not means – I thought it might be more interesting to expand and spend more time on the possible interpretations above in a post of its own. Part 2 will take this discussion further. Stay tuned, I will try to touch on whether or not Trend Following should, and can, adapt to changing market conditions – update: post here. 25 Comments so far ↓ umm, firstly Dennis and Eckhardt ran the Turtle experiment to prove whether traders could be taught or whether they are born – the actual system they used to trade is completely irrelevant.. Having said that, they obviously used a set of rules that they thought would be successful (or had proved to themselves was successful) for the type of market they were trading at the time.. Obviously if such an experiment were run today the system would have to be appropriate for the way markets behave today.. This is very interesting discussion. I just finished read Covel’s Trend Following and The Complete Turtle Trader and found that it is possible to trading for a true living trhough trend following. Well, I’m happy to say that I will wait for another article you write and learn from it as well. Agree with the debate between Eckhardt and Dennis as the main point for the Turtle experiment. The angle I wanted to approach this was to look at the system rather than the experiment itself – and see how a Trend Following system performance can break down. I agree: I could have chosen any similar system to illustrate the fact that performance has “broken down” when comparing recent history to the 70’s (heck, even a random entry system used to perform much better than it does now – when applying a sound money management algorithm). Discussing the Turtle system makes it quite interesting because of the mytical apsect of it (ie real trading system that was traded by a Trend Following wizard – Rich Dennis – making him and his students milliions of dollars)… This is really only an introduction to an “endless” debate: “Do markets change and should/can your (TF) system adapt to these changes?” These books by Covel are good for some insights on Trend Followers and great motivational tools… It gets a bit more “difficult” when you start delving in the details but hopefully this blog can help on that side (that’s the goal: look at trend following “under the hood”) I have not run into the trend following is dead crowd myself. Sounds to me they may be a little ignorant of how trading actually works. By nature trading models will go through periods of ups and downs, unless you’ve got a perfect arb. Given that trend following is long term draw down periods may also be longer than other short duration models. I’d be curious to know where you ran upon this crowd that believes if something is not working it is dead? Constructive criticism here so don’t take it personally, but perhaps you should distance yourself from those who make such silly claims about how markets work. It sounds to be to not only be an arrogant statement but also an uniformed statement. One cannot say if something is dead or not until it actually is. This is especially true of trading models. It should also be noted that I am not much of a trend follower so I am not biased to it one way or the other, but I do have a pretty firm understanding of speculative trading models. Sam – não se preocupe. That crowd doesnt affects my thinking too much – maybe just for some healthy skepticism. Have you come across Vic Niederhoffer – he would be one of them.. I think basically all the traders that do not believe in trend following for its lack of “complexity” and just celebrate after years of bad performance – or even Trend Followers self-doubters. At the end of the day, there is some randomness (luck) in every skill you have. I can pretty confidently say that between three systems I follow, one would do very well over the next 5 years. What I can’t tell is which one. Now assume there are three hedge funds or CTAs, and each one adopts one of the three systems. One of them is likely to be lucky. Whether you are following a fundamental screen or a technical screen, there will always be a choice that you will have to make. And usually the choice you make will be influenced by your biases and preconditioning. Hence, the luck is always there. What we do by fundamental and technical screens is try and simplify/reduce our decision making and in doing that, we are trying to reduce noise/randomness and improve our chances of winning. In the above case, we now have a chance of delivering above average returns of 33% vs say 5%. My general feel of trend following systems is that the shorter-term ones have been losing their edge, but the longer-term ones are still holding their ground. It would be interesting if you could post up a chart comparing the turtle equity curve and an equity curve based on a simple 12 month momentum that AQR talks about in this paper. Hi Lee, Thanks – this is a very valid point and in the follow-up article I will show how the Turtle system can be “fixed” by making it go longer term. This is a similar idea to a study I saw using random entries and “Trend Following” money management rules (ie let winners run and cut losses short). These sort of systems have broken down to, indicating that there might well be more “noise”, which needs to be filtered by looking at a longer term timeframe. Hopefully, this will be shown by the State of Trend Following report, looking at different timeframes (note that I am planning on including the AQR benchmark strategy to the State of TF report). Desculpe & # 8211; misssed your comment. I completely agree that chance plays a role in everything (mostly) and the game is just trying to stack the odds in your favour as you explain… Unless you have a perfect crystal ball (let me know), trading in the markets you’ll always be subject to the random impacts of Lady Luck! Oi. I have been trading self-made automated systems since early 2009. I trade only stocks, since I’m undercapitalized for FX and bonds. I have find vital diversification in different time frames and opposed strategies. I have recently started to re-think risk, and I have a question on that topic. I risk 2%/equity per trade. Expected drawdown on single stock is modest 10% of the capital. Nonetheless, I trade baskets of 30 stocks per system, and I have four different systems. So I actually trade 120 stocks with a potential 10%DD in all of them. Since the strategies are opposed (two mean-reversion vs. two trend-.following) and the timescales are different (two weekly vs. two daily) and some strategies have relatively rarely open positions, I have thought that my risk is acceptable. But is? Opinions, arguments? How do you calculate risk for strategy, which trades 30 stocks, spends 5% of time in the market, and expects a drawdown of 10%? Many thanks for the best posts in the blogosphere and all the best. Hi NordicTrader – thanks for the kind words! I think Risk and Money Management rules are one of the most important part of the system to keep you “alive”. And one thing you should always try to keep in mind is the eventual Black Swan that will show up and how you would survive it. Now, I am not sure I understand exactly how much you are risking per stock (2% or 10%), but assuming it is 2% you can see how having 120 positions open at once would risk 240% of your equity which is not acceptable (think Black Swan) – so I would suggest you might implement some safeguards such as a maximum portfolio heat (ie total risk on all open positions not more than X% of equity) and work within these limits (ie refuse new positions that would make you go over the thresholds or sell down existing positions to “make room” for the new ones. You might also want to look at things such as correlation although this is a double-edge sword: ie it can change quickly. In any case I really recommend that you play around with your rules in a simulation to try and understand how they affect your systems. Since I was discussing the Turtle rules, you could maybe get inspiration from them on Money/Risk management: they had different maximum risks based on sector/correlated markets and total positions. PS: OANDA might be a good platform for you to look at FX trading: they do not have position size minimums. No one could predict top and bottom, TF just follow trend to top and bottom with a trailing stop. Trend followers only make money when market in bullish and bearish run. In super bull run and super bear run, TF make super profit![ eg 2007,2008 and 2009.] But TF endure losses when market flat. Trend following will surely make money in very long term, when market will surely move up and down greatly. The only problem is how to cope with the emotional stress when traders lose money over the flat market which may last for years! The chart you use is logarithmic, not linear, so backtesting results seem flatter, than they really are. Trend following is not dead. Even if we use counter trading strategy for example mean reversal system we are looking for a coming trend. Though i think that now trading is more accelerated and trends are shorter than they used to be. Den – the point of the chart was not to establish whether trend following is dead or not… And if you read few more posts from the blog you’ll realise that I do believe TF is well alive! Ps: log charts are the best way to look at a track record, especially from a long-term perspective, when compounding returns. In a linear scale chart the beginning of the track record appears usually all flat because of the exponential effect of componding (a concept usually abused by people using “hockey stick” charts to dramatize growth of anything, from world population to pollution, etc.). The log scale chart removes this exponential effect, allowing for a better comparison of CAGR (which is simply proportional to the slope of the equity curve). Hi Jez, thanks very much for your dedication to trend following. At the risk of over simplifying, I really feel as though deciding what kind of trends you want to trade is crucial with regards to system development as they come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Odd as it may sound, It occupies a lot of my time. I have come to understand and appreciate the effects that different trend speeds and durations have on a trading model. A bit of thinking aloud really… Interested to hear your thoughts when you have the time. Vince – I agree with you, there is no “one-size-fits-all” for trends, which is why my thinkings are usually along the line of trading different systems for different trend timeframes in order to gain from the diversification that this can provide. i) The experiment proved that trading can be taught. ii) The back testing you did provides evidence to support the theory that the more a system is widely known the poorer will be its results. No doubt this is why Richard Dennis kept it secret. As did Warren Buffet for the first half of his career. iii) The real test of a great trader is not that he can follow a system given to her. But that she can develop a system that works, use it whilst its working, realise when it stops working and stop using it and develop a new one that works. Or even better multiple systems that you can use at the same time. This is what Warren Buffet and Richard Dennis both did and a number of the Turtle graduates. “But that she can develop a system that works, use it whilst its working, realise when it stops working and stop using it and develop a new one that works.” Ummm… não. If you develop a relevant and robust trading system that actually works you don’t have to keep stopping and “develop a new one that works”. What you are describing is the beginner’s cycle of chasing the holy grail. There are a couple of things that I see are in error in this article: 1) The system results that you provide in the article from tradingblox: Neither the original OP of the thread or the one who posted the graph made any claims that the algorithm tested followed the original turtle rules laid out in the pdf by Curtis Faith or any of the other turtle traders. And no code was posted, which wouldn’t have been a problem since the rules were already public anyway. Curtis Faith complete turtle rules pdf: metastocktools/downloads/turtlerules.pdf. 2) the internal memo from Richard Dennis to his followers; why was this even mentioned? The sentence immediately preceding “….We must be living right…” was “…The good news is that this has been true throughout the whole trading program–your profits were doubled, but at the cost of a doubling of the risk….” This along with the rest of the memo simply suggested that the position sizes currently in use were too large for market conditions, and that they should be reduced. It didn’t appear invalidate the underlying strategy in use. I also wanted to comment on what another comment, afamiii mentioned here #comment-2474 “” The article largely assumes that the rules were backtested exactly as it would have been traded mechanically. There is not enough evidence to prove the original rules were used. I’ve seen this done many times about the turtles or any other system that is being criticized. They will often show a bastard version of it and present the bastard as the original. But many vendors have come along using the turtle name and fame, including Michael Covey, to promote their improvements and turtle methods. In all of the vendors i’ve seen, their improvements are always in the form of a blackbox or some non-transparent or discretionary method. So you pay thousands of dollars for the ‘idea’ that you may be profitable some day. I wrote this article a while ago but looking back on it, it seems that the main points I put forward were: 1- The performance of the Turtle trading system (and similar systems) had drastically reduced. 2- The turtles were lucky to be trading at double the heat they should have been during a profitable period. Re: point 1, I’m sure you’ll agree that, whether a system is exactly as per the turtle system rules or simply similar, it will exhibit a similar performance curve as the one displayed in the post. Turtle trading is not as profitable as it used to be. Período. And I do not think anybody would argue that point. Re: point 2, the memo shows that – by their own admissions – the turtles were “trading twice as big as they thought” because they had “misconstrued the theoretical data”. The fact that this happened during a profitable trend following period inflated their returns (lucky outcome I’m sure you’ll admit) and even better did not trigger a blow-up that could have occurred, had the markets not been favorable (ask any CTA or trend follower how they’d feel right now if they realised they’d run their program at twice the heat by mistake). Avoiding a blow-up in this context: quite a lucky outcome as well. I believe the comment: “We must be living right” is actually a way of saying that they have been lucky: they made a mistake, took twice as much risk as they should have, yet did not get punished by the market but rather the opposite. I’m pretty sure a few people would qualify this as “lucky”, hence the relevance of the memo to the article. I have no idea whether the turtle system is still profitable today mainly because I do not trade it myself. But I do use mechanical trading systems extensively. To imply that something mechanical may or may not be as good performance wise, without looking at the fundamental inputs (the system itself in this case) would mean that we are relying on consensus in order to declare something as being valid or not. This is more like trading as a religion: edgesense/trading-as-religion-part-1-traders/ In regards to the second point about being lucky, the risk may have been up to double what they originally planned for, but so would the drawdowns also as the memo stated. The memo stated that to reduce the risk, the position sizes needed to be scaled down 50%, not to rewrite the underlying system. It is unlikely that it was pure chance that lead to their success, especially considering that (according to the pdf I mentioned), they usually traded multiple liquid instruments at any given time. Do you recommend or propose a mechanical trading alternative that is not based on what you consider luck? Thanks for that article, it’s an interesting read. Maybe the “tongue-in-cheek” title and tone of this post was not apparent to you, but I’m sure that if you check a few more articles on the blog, you’ll see that it is not representative of the overall ideas expressed here. Indeed I even track and try to reproduce performance from ex-Turtle traders… Not something a trader thinking that “it was pure chance that lead to their success” would do… To be sure: of course their system was sound and I do not believe luck is the main factor in their success (and maybe I did not express myself very well in the article or you’re taking the headline title a bit too literally, but this is not the point I was making here!…). Sure, I was arguing that there was some luck involved in the markets not “punishing” them for their risk-underestimation mistake. Also that they were lucky to able to trade in such a profitable period for short-term trend following (compared to trend followers trading now for example). Just a bit of attention-grabbing headline using a famous successful trading case to basically open up the discussion on the fact that trend following systems might have to change and adapt to conditions, as presented in the follow-up article: automated-trading-system/intricacies-of-market-and-trend-following-changes/ (which discussed a good article by Anthony Garner on tuning the Turtle system). imho, every “good” system will eventually lose its usefulness as more and more people discover and exploit its edge. therefore, any real “edge” a system has is only temporary. some “dead” systems might come back to life after some time, but 1. such resurrection would be highly unlikely, especially for simpler, more obvious/robust(thus, one might say, good) systems, and 2. it won’t be because people stop trading that system to milk marginal gains, but probably because of new profitable systems B and C combined reinforces old exploitable pattern A by coincidence. I agree with the view that unintentionally running at double heat and discovering the error when the market has been running your way is lucky. I think we tend to get a bit constipated about the use of the word ‘luck’ in the west. I used to go to the far east on business, and twenty years ago one evening wandering around the skyscrapers of Seoul I walked past one very tall and glossy building with the company name proudly proclaimed – “Lucky Investment Corporation”. Made me laugh. No western company would use the name, but who wants to be unlucky? By the way they are quite lucky. Part of Lucky Goldstar. LG. Skilled, hardworking, blah blah, but their lucks been ok so far too. Deixe um comentário (Cancelar) Atualizações gratuitas. Posts populares. Procure no blog Au.Tra.Sy. Corretor Global de Futuros. Blog Au.Tra.Sy, pesquisa e desenvolvimento de Trading Sistemático, com um sabor de Trend Following. Disclaimer: O desempenho passado não é necessariamente indicativo de resultados futuros. 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You will receive this 3 hour, On-Demand course broken down in 30 minute recorded modules for easy viewing and comes with the detailed 84 page course Power Point. Additional Course Bonuses: 1 month access to the Power Cycle Virtual Trading Room , that is open from 8:10 AM Central to 3:15 PM Central each trading day. In this room you can follow along with Larry’s trading, learn the Power Cycle Trading System and ask questions. It’s your own mini hedge fund! 1 month free access to the After Market Power Outlook . This is a daily market video that will prepare you for what’s lies ahead in the markets along with trading alerts and analysis. 1 free month of Live weekly trading Q&As with Larry Discounts & priority access to upcoming courses. Order Pairs Trading for Market Neutrality & Big Profits On-Demand Course today! Pairs Trading for Market Neutrality & Big Profits Course. (includes 1 month FREE Trading Room Access and Free access for 1 month. to the Daily After Market Power Outlook) (Indicators & Scanner Software Included) (Without Indicators & Scanner Software) For member’s discounts log into member’s area: Selling Options for Income, Profits & Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management. In this program, “ Selling Options for Income, Profits & Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management,” you’ll learn my AHA trading strategy that’s all about taking advantage of the great trading benefits that Selling Options and Option Spreads provide for both the highest probability of winning trades and for quickly hedging risk on any core trade. And you can now begin to trade Option Spreads, Credit Spreads, like a pro with this step by step blue print option course! The passivity of this method, when correctly used, is that it allows you to create income while you are working in a corporate or other job, or enhance your retirement income. That’s the definition of financial freedom, and you could probably call that pretty priceless. Buy Now / More Details. The 4+ hour recorded course broken down in 8 recorded video modules. This is a step-by-step, selling options, blue print course which is 100% credit spreads with an additional focus on hedging using credit spreads. What we call “Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management.” 356 page Power Point Trading Manual of course, with a trading library of credit spread trade examples. Here is just some of what’s covered in this course: The Vital Option Greeks and how they are used when selling options How, Why & When to use Credit Spreads to create low-risk, high-probability directional trades How & When to use Credit Spreads on stocks and index options such as SPX, RUT & NDX How, Why & When to use the “Ninja” Credit Spread,” “Ratio Butterfly,” in your directional trading What are the major trading advantages of the “ Ninja Credit Spread ,” “Ratio Butterfly,” in your directional trading When to enter & exit a Credit Spread : 5, 10, or 20 days out How to steadily & consistently grow a small account into a large account using Credit Spreads Credit Spread Strategies Used Trading Market Cycles Using Fibonacci & Moving Average Automated Trend Line Price Target Analysis Using Standard Deviation to determine High Probability Trade Set-ups for all Credit Spreads Credit Spread Trading Rules. How & When to use Credit Spreads & the butterfly spread for hedging a core trading position How to defend the Credit Spread trade & even make money when you’re wrong – 6 defenses What is “Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management” & amp; how you can use it to turn loosing trades into winning trades Position Sizing using Credit Spreads to reduce trading risk How to turn a 70% probability of winning trade into a 90% probability of winning The best technical analysis techniques to use for your trade set-ups How to trade spreads “end of day” so you don’t go bug-eyed looking at charts all day Credit Spread Trade Library. So if you would like to get more consistent profits and reduce the trading stress in your life then this Option Trading Workshop, “Selling Options for Income, Profits and Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management” is just what you need. You’ll learn how to take advantage of the great trading benefits that Selling Options and Option Spreads provide for both the highest probability of winning trades and for the quick “Opportunistic Hedging” of risk on any core trade. And if you don’t know how to quickly Hedge your positions, your trading is an accident waiting to happen… Stop losing time and money on options trading. Order your course today, and within minutes you will be on your way to making better trades. Complete “Selling Options for Income, Profits and Opportunistic Hedge Trading Management” for just $297. Purchase Now for $297. For Trading Club Discount. Earnings Game Plan Profits Course; Low Risk High Return Option Plays Adding a new income stream can take years to achieve considering the amount of education and work usually required. But what if you could learn how to add a new income stream from Trading Weekly Options on stocks reporting earnings or how to identify and trade a pre-earnings or post earnings trend using a Market Neutral Earnings Trend Strategy! And what about adding a directional earnings trade with a High Reward but Low, Low Capital at Risk? Part of my mission at Power Cycle Trading is to teach other traders what I know about trading with an emphasis on options and weekly options. I have been a professional trader for over 30 years and trading options since 1987, so I have a lot of knowledge and experience that I am now able to share with my members and students. Buy Now / More Details. To help you take advantage of the great trading opportunities that happen every earning season I have put together an On Demand Earnings Workshop on how to exploit earnings for big profits using weekly options and pairs trades. The course includes an Earnings Trade Library of 32 detailed weekly option earning trade examples. It’s a detailed library of trade examples that will help you to better understand these strategies and quickens the learning process: This Earnings Workshop is packed with in-depth training on everything you’ll need to know to trade earnings; my secret low risk, high leverage. low cost non-directional weekly option strategy, strike analysis tips, volatility plays, stock selection and much more. Plus my All New “Ninja” Directional High Reward. Low Risk Weekly Ratio Butterfly Strategy and an amazing Market Neutral Earnings Trend Strategy for Pre-Earning & Post Earning Trends (using a synthetic option structure) ! This On Demand Workshop will get you off the sidelines and get you prepared for making profits, which sometimes can be Huge, by sharing all my earnings trading strategies with you. I want you to stop being a spectator and become a player that makes great profits by taking advantage of the market’s volatility surrounding earnings. Here is what’s covered: non directional weekly option strategies for trading earnings How to select the best neutral. non directional weekly option strategies based on the Implied Projected Move & Historical Statistics of the stock How & when to set-up all trade strategies How to manage trades into option expiration A little known, low cost, defined risk, premium collection strategy that is a perfect for trading an earnings break-out. Learn which strikes work best. Should you go far Out of the Money or Close in? You will find out. How to take advantage of high option volatility for your earnings option plays How to defend & manage an option trade gone wrong The selection of the right stocks for an earnings trade is very important to the success of an option strategy. You will learn how to use my 7 step selection process that makes building a watch list of great trading stocks easy to do Step-by-step guide for using “Stock Pairs” for catching a pre or post earnings trend with reduced market risk How to execute a Pairs Trend Trade using synthetic options “Ninja” Ratio Option Butterfly for High-reward. Low-risk earnings release directional trades Statistical resource for earnings history on all stocks How to use this statistical information to analyze a stocks earnings release move or post earnings move for a Weekly Option or Pairs Trade Strategy. To save you the time & work of finding the best stocks to trade during earnings I have done all of this for you. You will receive my Earnings Watch List of the Best Stocks to profit from this Earning Season. Plus my watch list of “Top Earnings Pairs” for pre & post earnings trend trades based on past statistics of an earnings trend! Earnings Game Plan Profits Course; Low Risk High Return Option Plays. For member’s discounts log into member’s area: Amazing Option Butterfly Trading Workshop. You’ll Want This 10 to 1 Reward to Risk Ratio That’s Crushing It… But the truth is that these types of rewards with low risk don’t come without the skills to structure and execute high level spreads properly. Here’s the great news: Most traders shy away from complex option spreads, even the pros. Plus, these advanced trade (and often lower volume) setups are way too complex for enormous institutional accounts to trade for their clients, but this spells opportunity for you. Por quê? Because you know that for less than the time it takes to play a few holes of golf, you can master these setups. And you also know that as an individual trader, you can slip in and out of trades that the big guys (Wall Streeters or “suits”) can’t. Buy Now / More Details. The Option Butterfly is a dynamic ( High Reward-Low Risk ) option strategy that can be traded for a variety of different reasons with different goals in mind, such as for: Income, High Reward-Low Risk Directional & Non-Directional Trades and Hedging and more. This comprehensive 5+ hour trading workshop on this amazing option strategy is now available On-Demand. Core Basics That Many Traders Miss When Using Butterflies (To the Detriment of Their Account!) What Option Greeks are Vital & How to Use Them How, Why & When to Use the Long Call or Put Butterfly How, Why & When to Use the Broken Wing Butterfly How, Why & When to Use the Ratio Butterfly How, Why & When to Use the Directional Butterfly How, Why & When to Use the Iron Butterfly How, Why & When to Use the Vacation Butterfly Optimal Times To Capitalize On the Different Butterfly Strategies How To Structure Setups With Returns of 10-to-1 or 12-to-1 with as little as $10 per option contract of capital at risk How to profit from Option Volatility Collapse & Theta Decay using the Butterfly Learn about option pinning, what is it & how you can trade it Learn How to Target the Appropriate Option Pinning Strike & then How to Profit from it using the Option Butterfly Spread How to Set up Price Target Set-ups for the Butterfly Spread using Fibonacci Technical Analysis Step by step check list of How to Put on the Trade and Take off the Trade so You Know exactly What to Do How to Execute & Mange the Butterfly Option Spreads How to use the Butterfly Spread to Defend a Vertical Debit or a Credit Spread How to use the Butterfly to Hedge Core Position And always more … This course is designed to teach you in an easy to understand, step-by-step format everything you will need to know about these strategies and how to profit from them. Aqui está o que você terá: 5+ Hour recorded Trading Workshop on How to Trade & Profit from the Amazing Option Butterfly Strategy – Value $800 Course Bonus Handouts: Larry’s Complete Option Strategy Manifesto, his Greek Power Tool Guide and more Bonus – Videos of 2 Complete, One-Hour Q&A’s 280 Full Course PowerPoint Manual. High Reward. Amazing Option Butterfly Trading C ourse. for just $297. For member’s discounts log into member’s area: A Trader’s Guide to Technical Analysis & Fibonacci Trading Review Course. By the end of this course you will understand the benefits and profit opportunities that come with knowing how to properly use Fibonacci, Trend Lines and Moving Averages in all your trading. From swing trades, day trades to long term investing this analysis works and it will help make a positive impact on your bottom line. So if you’re frustrated in your trading and not seeing the return on the time and energy you spend on trading, then make this investment in yourself and expand your technical trading knowledge today! Buy Now / More Details. A Trader’s Guide to Technical Analysis. Here’s what is covered in this course… What Fibonacci numbers are & the Golden Ratio Their trading & investing importance How to apply Fib ratios to all markets & time frames What are Fib price retracements & best ways to use them What are Fib price extensions & how & when to use them How & when to use Fib price projections Learn How to Target the Appropriate Option Pinning Strike & then How to Profit from it Using the Option Butterfly Spread Using Fib analysis for the Macro Big Picture Trend trading all the way to intra-day trading How to mechanically construct & use Trend Lines in all trading How to properly use Trend Lines for momentum break out trades across all markets & time frames How to incorporate & use moving averages into your trading for trend reversals & trend tracking And more … Aqui está o que você terá: 3.5 Hours of Recorded Video Training in 30 Minute Modules. Video of Complete Bonus One Hour Q&A. 100 Page Full Course Power Point. Bonus Course – Fibonacci Trading Review Course. Follow up review course on the use of Fibonacci analysis based on trading examples. This Fibonacci Course Package is designed to teach you in an easy to understand, step-by-step format what you need to know about using this technical trading analysis… Complete Trader’s Guide to Technical Analysis C ourse and Fibonacci Trading Review Course for just $197. This On Demand workshop will be an in-depth review on how to use the powers of Fibonacci in your trading or investing. Here is just some of what is covered: How to apply Fib ratios to all markets & time frames The best ways to use Fib price retracements The best use of Fib price extensions & when to use them How & when to use Fib price projections Using Fib analysis for the Macro Big Market Trend and on down to the intra-day market trend How to mechanically construct Fib levels for quick trade analysis Proper way to construct and use Trend Lines. Here’s what you’ll get: 3 Hours of Recorded Video Training in 30 Minute Modules. 71-Page Full Course Power Point. Purchase Now for $197. For Member’s Discount Log into Member’s Area: Option Trading Made Simple Course Make money and reduce trading risk. That’s how it’s supposed to work. But without a good trading system, you’re sunk. Even worse, latch onto a complicated system and you’re treading water with the sharks. That’s where we can help. Our approach takes the simplicity of using the option delta for trading options and option spreads, to make better trade decisions…so you can start winning! Our practical way to trade options is simplified in our Option Trading Made Simple course. This course will walk you through everything you need to know about how to make money by using the options. Buy Now / More Details. The Option Trading Made Simple manual Video: What is the Option Delta & How is it Used • Video: Examples on How to Use Option Delta Video: Examples on How to Use Option Delta for Option Spread Trading. You’ll learn how to… Select the optimum strike price for calls and puts Better manage option trading risk Determine the risk-to-reward of a trade Construct combination option positions Calculate profit targets and stop loss levels for option spreads at different price points. This is just a small list of what you will learn. We are confident that you will have everything you will need to make great decisions on option trades. We are so confident that if for whatever reason you don’t feel that you benefited from this course, just send us a note within the first 90 days and we will refund 100% of your money, no questions asked. A sério. Stop losing time and money on options trading. Order your course today, and within minutes you will be on your way to making better trades. Complete Option Trading Made Simple mini-course for just $97. For member’s discounts log into member’s area: Insider Secrets for Technical Trading Profits Everyone needs to start somewhere. Whether you are completely new to trading or you need a fresh start with a better approach to your trading then this is the course to take. “Insider Secrets for Technical Trading Profits” is a comprehensive and easy to understand training course on how to use technical analysis in your trading and investing decisions. Once you learn how to incorporate technical analysis into your decisions you will then start making much better trading and investing decisions and they will become much easier and more profitable. Buy Now / More Details. The importance of psychology in trading markets How to develop a trading plan based on 7 key points that will serve and support you in your trading career How to use moving averages for tracking trends, to identify reversals and support and resistance, to measure the strength of an asset’s momentum and for risk management How to select and use trading time frames conducive to your goals and to build analytical approach so that you know the optimal time to employ for your strategy and enter trades based on what it is that you want to get out of the market How to identify and use support and resistance, how to map out supply and demand zones in any market How to use Fibonacci and Fibonacci extensions to identify support and resistance, reversal points and for projecting future price targets How to identify trend break-outs and how to trade a momentum break-out How to identify market tops and bottoms using Top-Down Market Technical Analysis over 5 major market time frames How to use broad market index comparison analysis for selecting the strongest market to trade in whether short or long How to use sector rotation to screen for trades across 9 major market sectors And much more. 85 page color course manual with charts 5 videos with over 75 minutes of course material. Order the Insider Secrets for Technical Analysis Today for just $97. For member’s discounts log into member’s area: Power Cycle Trading Club Membership Program. “There is nothing like the camaraderie and accountability of a real trading room for dramatically improving results.” & # 8211; Larry Gaines. Virtual Trading Room. Global Pre-Market Updates Daily Macro to Intermediate Technical Pre-Market Analysis Pre-Market Analysis for Major Asset Classes Membership to After Market Power Outlook Program. After Market Power Outlook. Daily Videos that prepare you for what’s ahead….. Major upcoming economic events alerts Update and review of the major market classes Global economic and political overview Video delivered daily by email after the market closes Market cycle & trend change alerts to protect your assets Ideal for those unavailable during US market hours. Buy Now / More Details. You’ll receive a daily market update from Larry that helps you prepare for the next trading day. This is ideal for day traders as well as swing traders or investors who want to get a quick but insightful market overview from both a technical and fundamental perspective from a real professional. Larry will step you through his charts so that you can enhance your own charting skills in these 10 to 15 minutes videos. This service capitalizes on Larry’s Power Cycle Trading™ Model for signaling cycle highs and lows and volatility break-outs in the broad market indexes, commodities and stocks. Members will receive access to the After Market Power Outlook exclusive hub where they can watch the videos after they are posted Monday through Friday. Get instant access for $7 for the first 7 days and then just $57 per month. At Power Cycle Trading, we saw that many members were benefiting from combining our model with the outstanding tools that were included in the Think or Swim platform. Learning the best tools and how to use them can take months. I don’t know about you, but I’m not that patient! Besides, if there’s a way to improve my trading results, I want to know it yesterday. That’s why Power Cycle Trading™ and Think or Swim expert Hugh Bryant and I have put together a course; so you can learn all of the best Think or Swim free tools to improve your day trading and swing trading results quickly. Find out why Think or Swim is one of Power Cycle Trading’s top brokers (and we’re NOT getting paid to say this!). Learn which tools are the best to improve your trading results, and how to use these powerful AND free tools effectively. You will be learning the ins and outs of this platform from Hugh Bryant. Who is Hugh? Well, we call him the smartest guy in the room. Hugh is a UCLA graduate, holds a PhD in Neuroscience, and has done extensive brain research. (We think this explains a lot!) But to top it off he is a great trader and trading coach. Here’s just some of what we’ll be covering in the course: General orientation–Tab-based Platform Summary of Main Tabs: Monitor, Trade, Analyze, Scan, Marketwatch, Charts, Tools Trade Tab: All Products, Active Trader All Products Sub Tab: Option Chains:Apple as example: weeklies, monthlies Customizing option chain columns, saving configurations Buying, selling singles, spreads, etc. Active Trader Sub Tab: Setting up grids Chart Settings, adding studies Creating a “Style”, saving and loading styles Creating a Grid, saving and loading grids Using styles and grids as templates to create other styles and grids Grids and multiple time frames: time, ticks, defaults and custom Customizing Indicators: colors, widths, shapes Hiding studies and /or plots within a study Bubbles, when to show or not show Details of Style Menu Adding menu options to Style Menu Chart Tab–Overview: Charts, Prophet and Flex Grid Drawing tools: Pointer, Time Level, Price Level, Trendline Other features, Right Click in chart area for drop down menu, watch lists, customizing column headings. Members may ENROLL for just $47 and for non-members it is $97 . For members to get the discount just add your coupon code in the order summary box “Promo Code” after you click on BUY NOW. The coupon code will be in the email you received about this event and it will be posted in your member discount area in Customer Hub. So take advantage of the free tools that Think or Swim has to offer now! $97 non-members | $47 members. &cópia de; RLCG Management 2010-2018, LLC | Todos os direitos reservados. Disclaimer: O conteúdo deste site e todos os produtos da Power Cycle Trading e Opções no Open são apenas para fins educacionais e não são destinados a aconselhamento financeiro. Você deve sempre consultar seu profissional financeiro antes de investir. RLCG Management, LLC. NOTÍCIA IMPORTANTE! Nenhuma representação está sendo feita que o uso desta estratégia ou qualquer sistema ou metodologia de negociação gerará lucros. O desempenho passado não é necessariamente indicativo de resultados futuros. Existe um risco substancial de perda associado a valores mobiliários negociados e opções sobre acções. Apenas capital de risco deve ser usado para negociar. Os títulos de negociação não são adequados para todos. Disclaimer: Futuros, opções e negociação de moeda todos têm grandes recompensas potenciais, mas eles também têm grande risco potencial. Você deve estar ciente dos riscos e estar disposto a aceitá-los para investir nesses mercados. Não negocie com dinheiro que você não pode perder. Este site não é uma solicitação nem uma oferta para comprar / vender futuros, opções ou moedas. Nenhuma representação está sendo feita de que qualquer conta terá ou poderá obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes àquelas discutidas neste site. O desempenho passado de qualquer sistema ou metodologia de negociação não é necessariamente indicativo de resultados futuros. CFTC REGRA 4.41 - OS RESULTADOS DE DESEMPENHO HIPOTÉTICOS OU SIMULADOS TÊM CERTAS LIMITAÇÕES. A PARTIR DE UM REGISTRO DE DESEMPENHO REAL, OS RESULTADOS SIMULADOS NÃO REPRESENTAM A NEGOCIAÇÃO REAL. TAMBÉM, UMA VEZ QUE AS COMERCIALIZAÇÕES NÃO FORAM EXECUTADAS, OS RESULTADOS PODEM TER COMPENSADO PARA O IMPACTO, SE ALGUM, DE DETERMINADOS FATORES DE MERCADO, COMO A FALTA DE LIQUIDEZ. PROGRAMAS DE NEGOCIAÇÃO SIMULADOS EM GERAL TAMBÉM ESTÃO SUJEITOS AO FATO DE QUE ELES FORAM CONCEBIDOS COM O BENEFÍCIO DE HINDSIGHT. NENHUMA REPRESENTAÇÃO ESTÁ SENDO FEITA QUE QUALQUER CONTA PODERÁ OU POSSIBILITAR LUCROS OU PERDAS SEMELHANTES AOS APRESENTADOS. Câmbio de Moedas. Níveis de Fibonacci é uma das ferramentas mais populares no mundo da análise técnica. Esses níveis são preditivos por natureza e ajudam a identificar recuos ou interrupções. As pessoas têm usado com sucesso desde anos, especialmente no mercado Forex. Usando retrações de Fibonacci em sua negociação não garantirá sucesso durante a noite. Mas, se usado em conjunto com outros indicadores de análise técnica, como RSI, MACD, médias móveis, padrões de velas, etc., pode ser muito valioso. Neste post, compartilhamos a planilha Excel de Fibonacci Levels. Por favor, leia para entender como usá-lo. Confira as outras planilhas populares do Excel postadas neste blog aqui. O que é a sequência de Fibonacci? A seqüência de Fibonacci é uma série de números onde cada número na seqüência é a soma dos dois números anteriores. Os primeiros dez números da sequência de Fibonacci são: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34. Números de Fibonacci também aparecem em muitos aspectos da natureza, como o arranjo de folhas em um caule e a ramificação de árvores. Off ultimamente, esta seqüência reuniu enorme popularidade nos mercados financeiros também. Da seqüência de Fibonacci vem uma série de proporções, e essas proporções são de especial importância para os traders, pois prevêem uma possível reversão ou fuga. A relação de Fibonacci mais importante é de 61,8% & # 8211; às vezes é referido como a razão de ouro & # 8220; & # 8221; ou & ldquo; golden mean & # 8221; e é aceito como o mais confiável # & # 8221; relação de retracção. A Proporção Áurea é obtida dividindo-se qualquer número na sequência pelo número que a segue imediatamente. Independentemente do número escolhido, a resposta será sempre muito próxima da média de 0,618, ou 61,8%. Por exemplo: 8 dividido por 13 = 0,615 = 61,5% 13 dividido por 21 = 0,619 = 61,9% 21 dividido por 34 = 0,617 = 61,7% Os outros dois índices de Fibonacci que os comerciantes forex usam são 38,2% e 23,6%. Esses dois índices parecem ter um nível mais baixo de sucesso, mas ainda são incluídos para fins de análise. A proporção de 38,2% é derivada dividindo-se qualquer número na sequência pelo número encontrado dois lugares à direita. Por exemplo: 8 dividido por 21 = 0,380 = 38,0% 144 dividido por 377 = 0,381 = 38,1% 6765 dividido por 17,716 = 0,381 = 38,1% De forma semelhante, a proporção de 23,6% consiste em qualquer número na sequência dividido pelo número que é três lugares à direita: 5 dividido por 21 = 0,238 = 23,8% 34 dividido por 144 = 0,236 = 23,6% 6765 dividido por 28,667 = 0,235 = 23,5% Além desses três índices, a maioria dos sistemas de negociação também apresenta níveis de retração de 50% e 100%. Como usar os níveis de Fibonacci? Os níveis de Fibonacci são amplamente classificados em dois: níveis de retracement e níveis de extensão. Os níveis de retracement representam a porcentagem de recuo ou retroceder antes de reverter para a tendência original. Enquanto os níveis de extensão representam a meta de preço. Em termos gerais, os níveis de retracement dão uma idéia de onde colocar Stop Loss, enquanto os níveis de extensão ajudam a identificar as metas de lucro. Aqui está a representação gráfica da retração: Depois que um estoque faz um movimento para o lado superior (A), ele pode então refazer uma parte desse movimento (B), antes de se mover novamente na direção desejada (C). Esses retrocessos ou retrocessos são o que você, como um operador de swing, deseja observar ao iniciar posições longas ou curtas. Folha de Excel para Calculadora de Níveis de Fibonacci. Valores Alto e Baixo do Estoque selecionado para Tendência de Alta e Tendência Baixa, respectivamente. Pode ser semanalmente Alta e Baixa para Negociação Swing, ou Alta e Baixa por Hora para Negociação Intradiária. Captura de tela. Baixar link. Faça o download da planilha do Excel no link abaixo. Deixe-nos saber na seção de comentários, se você tiver alguma dúvida. Pós-navegação. Posts Relacionados Você Pode Gostar. 7 comentários. SIR gentilmente dar o melhor MCX INTRADAY CALCULATOR. calculadora intraday e posicional para mcx. O senhor pode fornecer dados em tempo real ao vivo para o corretor Amy & # 8230; seus downloads de alguns exceell são grandes, mas não é fácil de encontrar de onde baixar ihave odwnloaded no passado, mas não conseguia encontrar agora. Por favor, veja o link abaixo para ver todos os Excels postados até agora: Respeitado senhor, podemos usar isso? Calculadora de folha de excel de Fibonacci & # 8221; com base em 15 minutos de tempo no comércio intradiário para CrudeOil .. Oi eu gostaria de perguntar se você pode dar como exemplo com imagem ou vídeo como usar calculadora folha de Fibonacci excel?
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